{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f986500-43d5-4e3f-83fd-9755576fc4d7", "symbol": "NUGT", "name": "DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 2X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.101, "architecture_energy": 34.996, "architecture_maturity": 60.249, "architecture_confidence": 67.404, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.62, "rotation_up": 28.13, "upward_expansion": 18.81, "deceleration": 62.76, "rotation_down": 43.52, "downward_expansion": 68.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.592, 125.184553, 139.692391, 156.895327 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 160.84, "trend_reference": 182.545804, "distance_from_trend": -0.118906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 86.004624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.870132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.200751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.286552, "excess_performance": -0.412177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118906, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.870132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.621219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152008, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.286552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.879371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3843650, "relative_activity": 1.257486, "balance": 0.879371, "dry_up": 1.073092, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18006, "annualized_volatility": 1.168206, "from_high_reference": -0.497657, "from_low_reference": 0.884315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 182.545804, "fair_value_reference": 86.004624, "structural_low": 98.8057, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.027728, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.073528, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.29189, "worst_return": -0.190032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.221558, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.219481, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.809252, "worst_return": -0.227314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.247534, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.240258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.916652, "worst_return": -0.201598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 84.157393, "relative_strength": -42.704462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.99537, "energy": 73.244443, "activity_lines": [ 116.491556, 126.777365, 148.569286, 168.175435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.3, "volume": 2904860, "typical_volume": 3119435.45, "trend": 186.695308, "fair_value": 84.669014, "relative_strength": -36.48323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.325667, "energy": 66.529898, "activity_lines": [ 113.956, 122.768214, 143.714023, 163.302184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.82, "volume": 3016733, "typical_volume": 3096340.4, "trend": 184.270967, "fair_value": 85.175695, "relative_strength": -39.216747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.343453, "energy": 61.587901, "activity_lines": [ 112.056, 119.029732, 139.109566, 158.407003 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 160.84, "volume": 3843650, "typical_volume": 3056613.75, "trend": 182.545804, "fair_value": 86.004624, "relative_strength": -15.200751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.10061, "energy": 34.995959, "activity_lines": [ 127.592, 125.184553, 139.692391, 156.895327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }