{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fa4f16b-8b58-411a-b70e-7ebb4accba75", "symbol": "RECV3", "name": "Petroreconcavo S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.978, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.827, "architecture_energy": 34.535, "architecture_maturity": 44.617, "architecture_confidence": 85.191, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.61, "rotation_up": 26.8, "upward_expansion": 17.53, "deceleration": 44.36, "rotation_down": 34.88, "downward_expansion": 65.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.426667, 10.324727, 10.859592, 11.24274 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.23, "trend_reference": 11.45241, "distance_from_trend": -0.106738, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.198822, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.224931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.799189, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.022591, "excess_performance": 0.034457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019163, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.224931, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006712, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022591, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.417402, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8137800, "relative_activity": 0.805991, "balance": 1.417402, "dry_up": 0.834327, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069648, "annualized_volatility": 0.328856, "from_high_reference": -0.281631, "from_low_reference": 0.114935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.45241, "fair_value_reference": 13.198822, "structural_low": 9.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.023777, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.01307, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.150685, "worst_return": -0.138486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014881, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.125235, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.092332, "worst_return": -0.126598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004734, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079929, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.058119, "worst_return": -0.106677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 13.30698, "relative_strength": -12.990193, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.482686, "energy": 67.458828, "activity_lines": [ 10.098, 10.391786, 11.202938, 11.42007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.59, "volume": 7970300, "typical_volume": 11834980.0, "trend": 11.410902, "fair_value": 13.271407, "relative_strength": -9.926029, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.473824, "energy": 52.723146, "activity_lines": [ 10.271333, 10.361455, 11.088366, 11.368784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.67, "volume": 7029400, "typical_volume": 10970010.0, "trend": 11.442782, "fair_value": 13.236882, "relative_strength": -10.526404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.567324, "energy": 35.298061, "activity_lines": [ 10.444, 10.368182, 10.990599, 11.320984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.23, "volume": 8137800, "typical_volume": 10096640.0, "trend": 11.45241, "fair_value": 13.198822, "relative_strength": -10.799189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.826905, "energy": 34.534998, "activity_lines": [ 10.426667, 10.324727, 10.859592, 11.24274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }