{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fa67e17-580e-4bfb-9f1e-511b83aacaa2", "symbol": "BSX", "name": "Amundi EURO STOXX 50 Daily (-1x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.673, "architecture_energy": 68.583, "architecture_maturity": 37.204, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 24.99, "upward_expansion": 12.49, "deceleration": 45.99, "rotation_down": 60.06, "downward_expansion": 85.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.5864, 6.6302, 6.778967, 6.914187 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.431, "trend_reference": 7.0438, "distance_from_trend": -0.086998, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.258363, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.614295, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098921, "excess_performance": -0.152232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086998, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035356, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221274, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061755, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098921, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.209338, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 564835, "relative_activity": 1.599997, "balance": 0.209338, "dry_up": 0.879133, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026434, "annualized_volatility": 0.176011, "from_high_reference": -0.19833, "from_low_reference": 0.004687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.0438, "fair_value_reference": 8.258363, "structural_low": 6.401, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.001694, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008121, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.053184, "worst_return": -0.07364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.012885, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.017567, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.080106, "worst_return": -0.085606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075558, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.112573, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.142263, "worst_return": -0.120068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.737, "volume": 237834, "typical_volume": 405898.0, "trend": 7.114967, "fair_value": 8.313267, "relative_strength": -11.333049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.580659, "energy": 70.39253, "activity_lines": [ 6.681333, 6.736582, 6.915781, 7.014277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.685, "volume": 153796, "typical_volume": 370587.9, "trend": 7.0904, "fair_value": 8.297004, "relative_strength": -11.974978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.056469, "energy": 60.560561, "activity_lines": [ 6.685067, 6.712855, 6.8769, 6.986538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.605, "volume": 284950, "typical_volume": 365926.15, "trend": 7.067033, "fair_value": 8.278351, "relative_strength": -13.868469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.605755, "energy": 53.203901, "activity_lines": [ 6.6602, 6.684145, 6.834138, 6.955222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.431, "volume": 564835, "typical_volume": 353022.5, "trend": 7.0438, "fair_value": 8.258363, "relative_strength": -17.614295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.673249, "energy": 68.582778, "activity_lines": [ 6.5864, 6.6302, 6.778967, 6.914187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }