{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0faddb48-eaae-4492-9608-46c678e6c336", "symbol": "MUMC", "name": "Manulife Multifactor U.S. Mid Cap Index ETF (Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.385, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.868, "architecture_energy": 68.374, "architecture_maturity": 64.736, "architecture_confidence": 66.906, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.64, "rotation_up": 58.11, "upward_expansion": 84.94, "deceleration": 66.23, "rotation_down": 28.3, "downward_expansion": 11.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.545332, 53.400535, 52.863812, 52.150607 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.349998, "trend_reference": 51.369438, "distance_from_trend": 0.058022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.303146, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199696, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.885873, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071781, "excess_performance": -0.048641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058022, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024229, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.107143, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400, "relative_activity": 0.421053, "balance": 0.107143, "dry_up": 0.5, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012056, "annualized_volatility": 0.098926, "from_high_reference": -0.011639, "from_low_reference": 0.163267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.369438, "fair_value_reference": 45.303146, "structural_low": 47.119999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.011432, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.005447, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.056319, "worst_return": -0.088166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009863, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.01847, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.103896, "worst_return": -0.136823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.057094, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.005376, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.110939, "worst_return": -0.012104, "sufficient": true }, { 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68.907414, "energy": 84.572086, "activity_lines": [ 53.292211, 53.011669, 52.124349, 51.516602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.25, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 1250.0, "trend": 50.910935, "fair_value": 45.020064, "relative_strength": -3.635283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.683107, "energy": 80.98868, "activity_lines": [ 53.307715, 53.114418, 52.313524, 51.675476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.860001, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 1240.0, "trend": 51.002105, "fair_value": 45.107585, "relative_strength": -4.348967, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.835937, "energy": 60.374925, "activity_lines": [ 53.1712, 53.118872, 52.456319, 51.801222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.259998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1215.0, "trend": 51.192438, "fair_value": 45.200928, "relative_strength": -2.956237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.868222, "energy": 54.039282, "activity_lines": [ 53.171333, 53.175756, 52.620399, 51.946893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.349998, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 950.0, "trend": 51.369438, "fair_value": 45.303146, "relative_strength": -3.885873, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.868225, "energy": 68.373881, "activity_lines": [ 53.545332, 53.400535, 52.863812, 52.150607 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }