{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0faea835-8e70-4ab3-bbf9-201f27430918", "symbol": "LFG", "name": "Leone Film Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.277, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.494, "architecture_energy": 78.032, "architecture_maturity": 15.239, "architecture_confidence": 72.152, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.3, "rotation_up": 16.23, "upward_expansion": 27.91, "deceleration": 43.02, "rotation_down": 78.65, "downward_expansion": 71.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.311333, 1.357273, 1.442524, 1.450624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.31, "trend_reference": 1.440333, "distance_from_trend": -0.090488, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.541474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150164, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.764085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02963, "excess_performance": -0.200521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090488, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150164, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196085, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02963, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.084459, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1800, "relative_activity": 0.181269, "balance": 0.084459, "dry_up": 0.188822, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04815, "annualized_volatility": 0.40051, "from_high_reference": -0.233918, "from_low_reference": 0.056452 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.440333, "fair_value_reference": 1.541474, "structural_low": 1.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016091, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029145, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.051282, "worst_return": -0.040404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043518, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.019231, "worst_return": -0.091693, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007746, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.151057, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048148, "worst_return": -0.197928, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.14481, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.39733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.128205, "worst_return": -0.239038, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037267, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107784, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.056738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140127, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007692, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.71, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 10305.0, "trend": 1.883158, "fair_value": 2.283731, "relative_strength": -17.377723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.926656, "energy": 49.053272, "activity_lines": [ 1.720667, 1.733586, 1.769557, 1.816857 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.71, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9960.0, "trend": 1.874552, "fair_value": 2.278496, "relative_strength": -17.963545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.270635, "energy": 46.267345, "activity_lines": [ 1.716, 1.726802, 1.760012, 1.805685 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 1.71, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 9375.0, "trend": 1.863727, "fair_value": 2.273376, "relative_strength": -18.470885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.580792, "energy": 52.827252, "activity_lines": [ 1.712, 1.720909, 1.751562, 1.795069 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 1.67, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 8895.0, "trend": 1.849033, "fair_value": 2.268231, "relative_strength": -18.533894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.137691, "energy": 59.939374, "activity_lines": [ 1.696667, 1.710364, 1.740577, 1.78257 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 1.56, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 8955.0, "trend": 1.833208, "fair_value": 2.262612, "relative_strength": -24.895357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.693434, "energy": 79.724061, "activity_lines": [ 1.649333, 1.681091, 1.720128, 1.763923 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 1.6, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 8925.0, "trend": 1.818716, "fair_value": 2.258291, "relative_strength": -21.27375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.872939, "energy": 83.810866, "activity_lines": [ 1.625333, 1.662545, 1.705025, 1.748877 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 1.51, "volume": 16200, "typical_volume": 9495.0, "trend": 1.80059, "fair_value": 2.254087, "relative_strength": -24.042163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.796873, "energy": 95.956948, "activity_lines": [ 1.578667, 1.630364, 1.682787, 1.72896 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 1.45, "volume": 8400, "typical_volume": 8670.0, "trend": 1.77888, "fair_value": 2.250656, "relative_strength": -25.217411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.612139, "energy": 97.377531, "activity_lines": [ 1.525333, 1.591091, 1.656609, 1.706342 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 1.47, "volume": 5700, "typical_volume": 8565.0, "trend": 1.760689, "fair_value": 2.247468, "relative_strength": -24.607991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.269643, "energy": 93.123713, "activity_lines": [ 1.496, 1.560727, 1.634215, 1.686414 ] }, { "date": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.703226, "energy": 13.745497, "activity_lines": [ 1.505333, 1.551273, 1.532476, 1.49372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.43, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 16215.0, "trend": 1.449333, "fair_value": 1.554808, "relative_strength": -14.593786, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.425838, "energy": 21.619094, "activity_lines": [ 1.472, 1.522182, 1.526619, 1.492624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.35, "volume": 16200, "typical_volume": 16740.0, "trend": 1.449, "fair_value": 1.552244, "relative_strength": -18.649206, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.323745, "energy": 41.687641, "activity_lines": [ 1.42, 1.483636, 1.512571, 1.486215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.3, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 14985.0, "trend": 1.447, "fair_value": 1.549551, "relative_strength": -20.073495, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.072393, "energy": 66.977428, "activity_lines": [ 1.367333, 1.441818, 1.493571, 1.476602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.31, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 12945.0, "trend": 1.444333, "fair_value": 1.546795, "relative_strength": -18.857522, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.370088, "energy": 75.745892, "activity_lines": [ 1.336, 1.408, 1.475667, 1.467763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.31, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10665.0, "trend": 1.441333, "fair_value": 1.544038, "relative_strength": -18.91206, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.24676, "energy": 78.604145, "activity_lines": [ 1.321333, 1.38, 1.45881, 1.459097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.31, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 9930.0, "trend": 1.440333, "fair_value": 1.541474, "relative_strength": -20.764085, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.49372, "energy": 78.031707, "activity_lines": [ 1.311333, 1.357273, 1.442524, 1.450624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }