{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fb0b924-736d-4e3a-8dac-c4c9c6af2f9a", "symbol": "585", "name": "Asian Micro Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.793, "architecture_energy": 15.166, "architecture_maturity": 22.047, "architecture_confidence": 72.37, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.52, "rotation_up": 20.79, "upward_expansion": 10.9, "deceleration": 53.16, "rotation_down": 45.56, "downward_expansion": 63.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003267, 0.003309, 0.003276, 0.003312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.003333, "distance_from_trend": -0.1, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.003327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098266, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.420002, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.404835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098266, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013689, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.038844, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400, "relative_activity": 0.000119, "balance": 1.038844, "dry_up": 0.078289, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.358974, "annualized_volatility": 1.675562, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003333, "fair_value_reference": 0.003327, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.171429, "directional_follow_through": 0.171429, "median_excess_return": -0.014201, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.076923, "directional_follow_through": 0.076923, "median_excess_return": -0.145107, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.270885, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.259954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"energy": 14.487455, "activity_lines": [ 0.0032, 0.003164, 0.003248, 0.003303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.004, "volume": 7042400, "typical_volume": 3538510.0, "trend": 0.0034, "fair_value": 0.00334, "relative_strength": -1.17622, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.390355, "energy": 9.671708, "activity_lines": [ 0.003467, 0.003309, 0.00331, 0.003342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.003, "volume": 545900, "typical_volume": 3565470.0, "trend": 0.003367, "fair_value": 0.003333, "relative_strength": -26.092694, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.696217, "energy": 13.161843, "activity_lines": [ 0.003333, 0.003273, 0.003276, 0.003316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.004, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 3391940.0, "trend": 0.003367, "fair_value": 0.00334, "relative_strength": -2.279703, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.589539, "energy": 15.2063, "activity_lines": [ 0.003533, 0.003418, 0.003338, 0.003357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 504100, "typical_volume": 3374615.0, "trend": 0.003333, "fair_value": 0.003333, "relative_strength": -26.869403, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.341898, "energy": 5.134995, "activity_lines": [ 0.0034, 0.003364, 0.003305, 0.003333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 3357735.0, "trend": 0.003333, "fair_value": 0.003327, "relative_strength": -27.420002, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.792565, "energy": 15.166038, "activity_lines": [ 0.003267, 0.003309, 0.003276, 0.003312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }