{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fb900b1-7117-4bc2-94d3-1b22f4ba5e83", "symbol": "UNIP5", "name": "Unipar Carbocloro S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.46, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.867, "architecture_energy": 19.019, "architecture_maturity": 8.35, "architecture_confidence": 62.857, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.09, "rotation_up": 35.9, "upward_expansion": 26.43, "deceleration": 42.93, "rotation_down": 20.05, "downward_expansion": 48.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.179333, 61.801636, 61.584762, 62.219118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 62.0, "trend_reference": 62.949667, "distance_from_trend": -0.015086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.804214, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.347627, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008, "excess_performance": 0.049048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005308, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062663, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.1875, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300, "relative_activity": 0.461538, "balance": 2.1875, "dry_up": 0.807692, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01804, "annualized_volatility": 0.227853, "from_high_reference": -0.130801, "from_low_reference": 0.183815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.949667, "fair_value_reference": 51.804214, "structural_low": 59.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009901, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009974, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.15921, "worst_return": -0.056921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000161, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.027788, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.108393, "worst_return": -0.088663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.047917, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.341792, "worst_return": -0.099578, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 62.0, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 725.0, "trend": 62.733334, "fair_value": 51.709262, "relative_strength": -7.306416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.12002, "energy": 29.218576, "activity_lines": [ 61.207333, 61.112545, 61.624238, 62.373764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.009998, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 625.0, "trend": 62.757667, "fair_value": 51.738463, "relative_strength": -5.030591, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.160565, "energy": 21.994948, "activity_lines": [ 61.475332, 61.262181, 61.545571, 62.327097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.009998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 590.0, "trend": 62.782, "fair_value": 51.769855, "relative_strength": -5.231408, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.102854, "energy": 18.919671, "activity_lines": [ 61.709332, 61.413635, 61.505142, 62.27886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.66, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 640.0, "trend": 62.804, "fair_value": 51.783802, "relative_strength": -6.405583, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.960334, "energy": 15.967372, "activity_lines": [ 62.125999, 61.687636, 61.561333, 62.270989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.0, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 650.0, "trend": 62.949667, "fair_value": 51.804214, "relative_strength": -4.347627, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.867318, "energy": 19.018762, "activity_lines": [ 62.179333, 61.801636, 61.584762, 62.219118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }