{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fb9240a-3d83-4b70-940c-61540a35f3e1", "symbol": "43Q", "name": "Advancer Global Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.72, "architecture_energy": 83.866, "architecture_maturity": 16.988, "architecture_confidence": 87.254, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.12, "rotation_up": 11.24, "upward_expansion": 20.37, "deceleration": 38.02, "rotation_down": 74.46, "downward_expansion": 93.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.096933, 0.099618, 0.110533, 0.113806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.097, "trend_reference": 0.1158, "distance_from_trend": -0.162349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.103321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.441452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07619, "excess_performance": -0.231026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162349, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.376437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.378689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.815126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10000, "relative_activity": 2.111932, "balance": 0.815126, "dry_up": 0.823654, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054718, "annualized_volatility": 0.427911, "from_high_reference": -0.353333, "from_low_reference": 0.154762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1158, "fair_value_reference": 0.103321, "structural_low": 0.091, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.020446, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.512821, "worst_return": -0.379845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.040413, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.573333, "worst_return": -0.379845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.082609, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.152849, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.591549, "worst_return": -0.379845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.08, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.254654, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": -0.42029, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123457, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010753, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008333, "active": false 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8.427435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.940242, "energy": 96.87923, "activity_lines": [ 0.129267, 0.125073, 0.120924, 0.118095 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 0.135, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8055.0, "trend": 0.1157, "fair_value": 0.103019, "relative_strength": 6.936693, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 96.67258, "energy": 98.83536, "activity_lines": [ 0.1322, 0.127327, 0.12261, 0.119404 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 0.135, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8055.0, "trend": 0.1167, "fair_value": 0.103429, "relative_strength": 5.28038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.277758, "energy": 94.84721, "activity_lines": [ 0.134067, 0.129291, 0.124176, 0.120649 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 0.145, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 8260.0, "trend": 0.117833, 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0, "typical_volume": 6830.0, "trend": 0.118567, "fair_value": 0.104205, "relative_strength": -16.307257, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.559652, "energy": 25.604974, "activity_lines": [ 0.122, 0.127055, 0.125467, 0.122492 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.11, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6830.0, "trend": 0.118533, "fair_value": 0.104154, "relative_strength": -15.954064, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.287289, "energy": 53.964605, "activity_lines": [ 0.116333, 0.123745, 0.124224, 0.12194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.094, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4825.0, "trend": 0.118, "fair_value": 0.104, "relative_strength": -28.449171, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.096981, "energy": 64.605882, "activity_lines": [ 0.107, 0.117727, 0.121433, 0.120357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.096, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 4855.0, "trend": 0.117533, "fair_value": 0.103859, "relative_strength": -29.49272, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.04703, "energy": 82.024448, "activity_lines": [ 0.101733, 0.112564, 0.118957, 0.118938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.097, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 5105.0, "trend": 0.1171, "fair_value": 0.103724, "relative_strength": -28.92032, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.477458, "energy": 82.09734, "activity_lines": [ 0.098733, 0.108291, 0.11669, 0.117613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.097, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4205.0, "trend": 0.116667, "fair_value": 0.10359, "relative_strength": -29.525437, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.848637, "energy": 89.467804, "activity_lines": [ 0.097267, 0.104709, 0.114533, 0.116316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.097, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 4235.0, "trend": 0.116233, "fair_value": 0.103455, "relative_strength": -29.385661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.44578, "energy": 88.345202, "activity_lines": [ 0.096667, 0.101818, 0.112481, 0.115047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.097, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 4735.0, "trend": 0.1158, "fair_value": 0.103321, "relative_strength": -29.441452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.720165, "energy": 83.865908, "activity_lines": [ 0.096933, 0.099618, 0.110533, 0.113806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }