{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fbbae49-2ce8-4976-9a79-3ab36945c244", "symbol": "300271", "name": "Beijing Thunisoft Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.257, "architecture_energy": 28.66, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.745, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.59, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 22.03, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 29.44, "downward_expansion": 60.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.423333, 5.255273, 5.491952, 5.870989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.67, "trend_reference": 6.442667, "distance_from_trend": -0.11993, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.18391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210736, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.253134, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.27027, "excess_performance": -0.27767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11993, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113069, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210736, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074106, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.37606, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126074311, "relative_activity": 2.42902, "balance": 0.37606, "dry_up": 1.949935, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084249, "annualized_volatility": 0.428765, "from_high_reference": -0.39745, "from_low_reference": 0.206383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.442667, "fair_value_reference": 7.18391, "structural_low": 4.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.034358, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.018385, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.213043, "worst_return": -0.262009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.122614, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064723, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.320789, "worst_return": -0.322721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.192475, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.168179, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.521739, "worst_return": -0.361111, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127968, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100446, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", 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[ 5.049333, 5.359091, 5.878524, 6.307032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.03, "volume": 53237525, "typical_volume": 47049746.05, "trend": 6.702, "fair_value": 7.317115, "relative_strength": -38.977036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.88311, "energy": 82.263763, "activity_lines": [ 5.005333, 5.245091, 5.75119, 6.193484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.98, "volume": 84929940, "typical_volume": 48102122.55, "trend": 6.620333, "fair_value": 7.278013, "relative_strength": -32.714502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.111325, "energy": 65.982865, "activity_lines": [ 4.977333, 5.145818, 5.633619, 6.082387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.83, "volume": 71932456, "typical_volume": 47613612.95, "trend": 6.540667, "fair_value": 7.240833, "relative_strength": -33.993342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.638765, "energy": 65.937463, "activity_lines": [ 4.920667, 5.049818, 5.516143, 5.966882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.88, "volume": 121896186, "typical_volume": 48641035.95, "trend": 6.495667, "fair_value": 7.211026, "relative_strength": -17.381278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.868006, "energy": 42.699557, "activity_lines": [ 5.244667, 5.170545, 5.510476, 5.924258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.67, "volume": 126074311, "typical_volume": 51903370.55, "trend": 6.442667, "fair_value": 7.18391, "relative_strength": -23.253134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.256939, "energy": 28.660423, "activity_lines": [ 5.423333, 5.255273, 5.491952, 5.870989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }