{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fbeaec9-b286-46a4-ab56-9b94c3bf6ef8", "symbol": "AMST", "name": "Amesite Operating\u00a0Co", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.747, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.136, "architecture_energy": 47.722, "architecture_maturity": 90.376, "architecture_confidence": 88.721, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.1, "rotation_up": 19.31, "upward_expansion": 8.78, "deceleration": 42.56, "rotation_down": 57.05, "downward_expansion": 84.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.03198, 1.081622, 1.19166, 1.318249 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 1.499457, "distance_from_trend": -0.299746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.480887, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.576764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -56.240107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.477612, "excess_performance": -0.665066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.299746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.576764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.562401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.477612, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 23.584715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 532682, "relative_activity": 0.050858, "balance": 23.584715, "dry_up": 0.047573, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.336132, "annualized_volatility": 1.608869, "from_high_reference": -0.780335, "from_low_reference": 0.363636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.499457, "fair_value_reference": 2.480887, "structural_low": 0.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.048387, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.060286, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.408451, "worst_return": -0.40678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.181348, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.179048, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.984064, "worst_return": -0.435597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.1115, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.309151, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.647343, "worst_return": -0.573904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.328767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.335165, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.323671, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09434, 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10454542.7, "trend": 1.56379, "fair_value": 2.517362, "relative_strength": -58.201007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.336108, "energy": 40.447566, "activity_lines": [ 1.075967, 1.156345, 1.258457, 1.386243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.99, "volume": 218025, "typical_volume": 10454012.8, "trend": 1.530123, "fair_value": 2.498131, "relative_strength": -57.520278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.515707, "energy": 51.6079, "activity_lines": [ 1.04064, 1.103438, 1.220392, 1.349224 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 532682, "typical_volume": 10473988.75, "trend": 1.499457, "fair_value": 2.480887, "relative_strength": -56.240107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.13582, "energy": 47.722166, "activity_lines": [ 1.03198, 1.081622, 1.19166, 1.318249 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }