{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fc42055-3f48-42c6-b987-b034b9001385", "symbol": "BMIN", "name": "Botswana Minerals plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.643, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.297, "architecture_energy": 22.624, "architecture_maturity": 39.295, "architecture_confidence": 39.596, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.92, "rotation_up": 17.05, "upward_expansion": 16.17, "deceleration": 57.7, "rotation_down": 52.38, "downward_expansion": 41.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002253, 0.002336, 0.002387, 0.002368 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.00225, "trend_reference": 0.002347, "distance_from_trend": -0.041193, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.003071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267392, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.118392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097561, "excess_performance": 0.046326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041193, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010541, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267392, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082845, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085654, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097561, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490565, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9886170, "relative_activity": 0.777048, "balance": 0.490565, "dry_up": 0.499681, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161709, "annualized_volatility": 0.48463, "from_high_reference": -0.357143, "from_low_reference": 0.40625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002347, "fair_value_reference": 0.003071, "structural_low": 0.0016, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": -0.013192, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.310345, "worst_return": -0.360656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.057412, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.056949, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.034483, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057692, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.122257, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.517241, "worst_return": -0.472222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.100997, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.169607, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052632, "worst_return": -0.631579, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.558824, "active": false 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"Established", "return": -0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170213, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0085, "volume": 835928, "typical_volume": 4541996.95, "trend": 0.009948, "fair_value": 0.009454, "relative_strength": -7.074869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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2.924265, "energy": 7.081491, "activity_lines": [ 0.002373, 0.002434, 0.002435, 0.002389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0022, "volume": 1215292, "typical_volume": 14184060.25, "trend": 0.002353, "fair_value": 0.003151, "relative_strength": -19.831231, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.059783, "energy": 15.628935, "activity_lines": [ 0.002293, 0.00239, 0.002415, 0.002378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0023, "volume": 7906945, "typical_volume": 13877119.55, "trend": 0.002345, "fair_value": 0.003111, "relative_strength": -16.033484, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.390264, "energy": 15.901018, "activity_lines": [ 0.002277, 0.002367, 0.002404, 0.002374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00225, "volume": 9886170, "typical_volume": 12722731.05, "trend": 0.002347, "fair_value": 0.003071, "relative_strength": -17.118392, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.297423, "energy": 22.623935, "activity_lines": [ 0.002253, 0.002336, 0.002387, 0.002368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }