{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fc5b547-236b-495a-a86d-e260fa76bda2", "symbol": "TSM", "name": "Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.325, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.886, "architecture_energy": 19.585, "architecture_maturity": 60.507, "architecture_confidence": 93.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.68, "rotation_up": 22.92, "upward_expansion": 53.71, "deceleration": 90.88, "rotation_down": 31.06, "downward_expansion": 17.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 410.552, 418.324274, 415.080302, 401.823991 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 420.04, "trend_reference": 384.081831, "distance_from_trend": 0.093621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 217.330198, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.932727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.148641, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.210122, "excess_performance": 0.084497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.932727, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111486, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.210122, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.342727, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59184857, "relative_activity": 0.880189, "balance": 1.342727, "dry_up": 1.118066, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090284, "annualized_volatility": 0.323652, "from_high_reference": -0.12309, "from_low_reference": 0.897955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 384.081831, "fair_value_reference": 217.330198, "structural_low": 313.093368, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.076185, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.06108, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.232171, "worst_return": -0.076938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.173745, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.082545, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.32621, "worst_return": -0.143041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.321048, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.167032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.410695, "worst_return": 0.006945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 404.25, "volume": 87339117, "typical_volume": 67683192.65, "trend": 380.814222, "fair_value": 215.203086, "relative_strength": 11.443682, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.742823, "energy": 18.7523, "activity_lines": [ 408.825333, 418.761416, 413.042125, 399.293296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 420.04, "volume": 59184857, "typical_volume": 67241111.0, "trend": 384.081831, "fair_value": 217.330198, "relative_strength": 11.148641, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.886038, "energy": 19.585468, "activity_lines": [ 410.552, 418.324274, 415.080302, 401.823991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }