{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fd45054-3532-4e58-97d5-d146b4712586", "symbol": "002300", "name": "Fujian Nanping Sun Cable Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.514, "architecture_energy": 42.504, "architecture_maturity": 67.355, "architecture_confidence": 60.902, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.31, "rotation_up": 25.64, "upward_expansion": 18.1, "deceleration": 66.61, "rotation_down": 44.26, "downward_expansion": 68.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.885333, 6.83665, 7.589141, 8.117879 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.18, "trend_reference": 8.698746, "distance_from_trend": -0.174594, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.837611, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050074, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.397871, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.153302, "excess_performance": -0.160702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174594, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060712, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153302, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.85603, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 229083517, "relative_activity": 1.400436, "balance": 0.85603, "dry_up": 1.262392, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128106, "annualized_volatility": 0.509987, "from_high_reference": -0.445131, "from_low_reference": 0.284436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.698746, "fair_value_reference": 6.837611, "structural_low": 5.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.036433, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.000818, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.22467, "worst_return": -0.147103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.162455, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.065416, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.455568, "worst_return": -0.200855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.268481, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.08808, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.606499, "worst_return": -0.278466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.863413, "fair_value": 6.846782, "relative_strength": -12.541088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.024892, "energy": 67.208683, "activity_lines": [ 6.563225, 6.890919, 7.847164, 8.342362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.97, "volume": 348261770, "typical_volume": 165542292.5, "trend": 8.76608, "fair_value": 6.840942, "relative_strength": -12.675776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.121374, "energy": 55.060995, "activity_lines": [ 6.699717, 6.823785, 7.699915, 8.220206 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.18, "volume": 229083517, "typical_volume": 163580083.75, "trend": 8.698746, "fair_value": 6.837611, "relative_strength": -14.397871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.513759, "energy": 42.504457, "activity_lines": [ 6.885333, 6.83665, 7.589141, 8.117879 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }