{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fdc4dc0-5e99-4ba1-b3d5-16cacb0806e1", "symbol": "KCSH", "name": "KRANESHARES SUSTAINABLE ULTRA SHORT DURATION INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.847, "architecture_energy": 91.808, "architecture_maturity": 56.497, "architecture_confidence": 68.341, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.81, "rotation_up": 78.21, "upward_expansion": 94.76, "deceleration": 44.92, "rotation_down": 11.43, "downward_expansion": 21.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.040753, 25.019459, 24.993944, 24.963747 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.07, "trend_reference": 24.915312, "distance_from_trend": 0.006209, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.226612, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034812, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.831069, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011352, "excess_performance": -0.114273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006209, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005069, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034812, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00155, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 311.101334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 282, "relative_activity": 0.006455, "balance": 311.101334, "dry_up": 2.304792, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001322, "annualized_volatility": 0.007294, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.032276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.915312, "fair_value_reference": 24.226612, "structural_low": 24.788595, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002136, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001592, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003562, "worst_return": -0.000595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00566, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03613, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.00592, "worst_return": 0.0054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.011352, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.073969, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.011352, "worst_return": 0.011352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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24.210738, "relative_strength": -6.426875, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.946405, "energy": 53.671343, "activity_lines": [ 24.999359, 24.995602, 24.973857, 24.942879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.05, "volume": 401711, "typical_volume": 44561.9, "trend": 24.904058, "fair_value": 24.218655, "relative_strength": -7.045412, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.134997, "energy": 65.370697, "activity_lines": [ 25.019592, 25.006601, 24.983424, 24.953041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.07, "volume": 282, "typical_volume": 43684.75, "trend": 24.915312, "fair_value": 24.226612, "relative_strength": -9.831069, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.847337, "energy": 91.808334, "activity_lines": [ 25.040753, 25.019459, 24.993944, 24.963747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }