{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fe0d7a0-cb89-4fa5-ba47-bf9e97301718", "symbol": "TSR", "name": "Turnstone Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.876, "architecture_energy": 63.693, "architecture_maturity": 32.839, "architecture_confidence": 91.657, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.32, "rotation_up": 19.68, "upward_expansion": 12.7, "deceleration": 42.36, "rotation_down": 58.22, "downward_expansion": 83.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.021867, 0.022509, 0.026014, 0.027185 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.028567, "distance_from_trend": -0.299883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.162362, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.876818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.411256, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.428571, "excess_performance": -0.492277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.299883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.876818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.384113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.428571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.242325, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 356253, "relative_activity": 0.728232, "balance": 1.242325, "dry_up": 0.439096, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176923, "annualized_volatility": 1.267708, "from_high_reference": -0.591837, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028567, "fair_value_reference": 0.162362, "structural_low": 0.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.008621, "positive_rate": 0.369565, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043553, "regime_survival": 0.891304, "best_return": 0.647059, "worst_return": -0.541668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.189756, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.211695, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.710527, "worst_return": -0.625005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.264518, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.277058, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.907896, "worst_return": -0.649997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 68531, "typical_volume": 577126.75, "trend": 0.029167, "fair_value": 0.17156, "relative_strength": -26.214673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.202614, "energy": 76.819421, "activity_lines": [ 0.022533, 0.025055, 0.027967, 0.028617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.025, "volume": 86200, "typical_volume": 565014.95, "trend": 0.029133, "fair_value": 0.168067, "relative_strength": -21.258551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.323442, "energy": 73.112621, "activity_lines": [ 0.023267, 0.024655, 0.02761, 0.028348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 348244, "typical_volume": 539066.3, "trend": 0.0289, "fair_value": 0.165118, "relative_strength": -37.455875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.766007, "energy": 52.934145, "activity_lines": [ 0.022467, 0.023473, 0.02679, 0.027759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 356253, "typical_volume": 489202.45, "trend": 0.028567, "fair_value": 0.162362, "relative_strength": -38.411256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.875722, "energy": 63.692849, "activity_lines": [ 0.021867, 0.022509, 0.026014, 0.027185 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }