{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0fe74c98-b5dc-4f31-9874-b4fe6319525c", "symbol": "ALNT", "name": "Alantra Partners, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.378, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.264, "architecture_energy": 24.891, "architecture_maturity": 47.121, "architecture_confidence": 80.473, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.55, "rotation_up": 33.47, "upward_expansion": 60.35, "deceleration": 83.27, "rotation_down": 27.07, "downward_expansion": 19.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.146667, 10.187273, 10.16703, 9.907961 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.05, "trend_reference": 9.558642, "distance_from_trend": 0.051405, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.282807, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.385704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.170353, "excess_performance": 0.045922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051405, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084995, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213357, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.170353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.363564, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62295, "relative_activity": 0.349947, "balance": 1.363564, "dry_up": 0.429607, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034826, "annualized_volatility": 0.236409, "from_high_reference": -0.063718, "from_low_reference": 0.336697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.558642, "fair_value_reference": 8.282807, "structural_low": 7.938349, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.007335, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.013507, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.035955, "worst_return": -0.068808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020097, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.041107, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.16167, "worst_return": -0.175926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.068255, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.143239, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.270492, "worst_return": -0.290124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10.228182, 10.026255, 9.715273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.4, "volume": 103470, "typical_volume": 190673.25, "trend": 9.384853, "fair_value": 8.267655, "relative_strength": 5.693212, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.72305, "energy": 47.650523, "activity_lines": [ 10.323333, 10.265455, 10.095491, 9.786471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.1, "volume": 67631, "typical_volume": 185479.8, "trend": 9.460725, "fair_value": 8.27162, "relative_strength": 0.826036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.88616, "energy": 41.660483, "activity_lines": [ 10.27, 10.240909, 10.128613, 9.83261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.1, "volume": 72506, "typical_volume": 179221.4, "trend": 9.52133, "fair_value": 8.276182, "relative_strength": -0.038141, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.002598, "energy": 36.215886, "activity_lines": [ 10.22, 10.218182, 10.154077, 9.873853 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.05, "volume": 62295, "typical_volume": 178012.9, "trend": 9.558642, "fair_value": 8.282807, "relative_strength": -2.385704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.264093, "energy": 24.891369, "activity_lines": [ 10.146667, 10.187273, 10.16703, 9.907961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }