{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ff34693-7681-4293-bc71-7d90e3c91271", "symbol": "600990", "name": "Sun Create Electronics Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.887, "architecture_energy": 55.538, "architecture_maturity": 81.177, "architecture_confidence": 88.161, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 23.49, "upward_expansion": 8.89, "deceleration": 59.49, "rotation_down": 54.6, "downward_expansion": 79.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.482667, 17.845091, 19.017714, 20.374968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.9, "trend_reference": 22.648, "distance_from_trend": -0.209643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.156603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.410238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.335807, "excess_performance": -0.292603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128532, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08406, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.335807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929358, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21809867, "relative_activity": 1.071867, "balance": 0.929358, "dry_up": 1.22669, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099098, "annualized_volatility": 0.379639, "from_high_reference": -0.532393, "from_low_reference": 0.177632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.648, "fair_value_reference": 22.156603, "structural_low": 15.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.00234, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.004107, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.358566, "worst_return": -0.15323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043595, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034252, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.812449, "worst_return": -0.41513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.282024, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.271996, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.56168, "worst_return": -0.471368, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.26, "volume": 65706450, "typical_volume": 20433808.15, "trend": 24.584, "fair_value": 22.324407, "relative_strength": -26.913614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.372069, "energy": 61.51639, "activity_lines": [ 18.762, 19.061636, 20.495809, 22.08529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.870001, "volume": 29831904, "typical_volume": 20977171.25, "trend": 24.108667, "fair_value": 22.277149, "relative_strength": -31.350675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.85309, "energy": 66.350935, "activity_lines": [ 18.152, 18.544909, 20.023857, 21.587613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.860001, "volume": 28846147, "typical_volume": 20251184.0, "trend": 23.631, "fair_value": 22.233462, "relative_strength": -31.587586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.635813, "energy": 62.485833, "activity_lines": [ 17.674001, 18.148728, 19.599762, 21.119957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 19352586, "typical_volume": 20117435.65, "trend": 23.106334, "fair_value": 22.189167, "relative_strength": -29.518737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.580992, "energy": 59.851809, "activity_lines": [ 17.476667, 17.91, 19.261334, 20.71086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.9, "volume": 21809867, "typical_volume": 20347548.6, "trend": 22.648, "fair_value": 22.156603, "relative_strength": -28.410238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.886697, "energy": 55.537911, "activity_lines": [ 17.482667, 17.845091, 19.017714, 20.374968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }