{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ff39c8d-1dcd-470a-84ac-eaad3dbebba3", "symbol": "EXCN", "name": "Franklin FTSE Emerging ex China", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.98, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.863, "architecture_energy": 29.792, "architecture_maturity": 64.955, "architecture_confidence": 78.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.24, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 59.32, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 35.16, "downward_expansion": 22.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.919667, 30.235091, 29.950476, 29.284237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.540001, "trend_reference": 28.424167, "distance_from_trend": 0.074438, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.731369, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234869, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.085239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141042, "excess_performance": -0.029849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074438, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070402, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234869, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.366383, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1016, "relative_activity": 1.016407, "balance": 0.366383, "dry_up": 1.913015, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030049, "annualized_volatility": 0.197112, "from_high_reference": -0.025215, "from_low_reference": 0.35673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.424167, "fair_value_reference": 24.731369, "structural_low": 25.370001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036326, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052378, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 22.735001, "volume": 850, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 22.639999, "volume": 270, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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30.585667, 30.477273, 29.683881, 28.95271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.955, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 1858.45, "trend": 28.141833, "fair_value": 24.619178, "relative_strength": 0.656199, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.659549, "energy": 44.849589, "activity_lines": [ 30.3, 30.427727, 29.798405, 29.080935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.02, "volume": 2427, "typical_volume": 973.15, "trend": 28.267, "fair_value": 24.667538, "relative_strength": -3.151242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.668782, "energy": 25.746847, "activity_lines": [ 29.794334, 30.189091, 29.809095, 29.137591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.540001, "volume": 1016, "typical_volume": 999.6, "trend": 28.424167, "fair_value": 24.731369, "relative_strength": -1.085239, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.862912, "energy": 29.791532, "activity_lines": [ 29.919667, 30.235091, 29.950476, 29.284237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }