{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ff426d9-b323-4810-9db7-cca92c645b36", "symbol": "603278", "name": "Shandong Daye Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.111, "architecture_energy": 72.9, "architecture_maturity": 23.975, "architecture_confidence": 83.62, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.08, "rotation_up": 9.24, "upward_expansion": 16.59, "deceleration": 37.25, "rotation_down": 72.58, "downward_expansion": 89.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.956, 9.780182, 11.056333, 11.391871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.54, "trend_reference": 11.920333, "distance_from_trend": -0.199687, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.948195, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.353065, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.231265, "excess_performance": -0.188061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.199687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004842, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.55815, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.410601, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231265, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.889492, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125662109, "relative_activity": 1.064197, "balance": 0.889492, "dry_up": 0.686332, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194888, "annualized_volatility": 0.781469, "from_high_reference": -0.47726, "from_low_reference": 0.292683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.920333, "fair_value_reference": 9.948195, "structural_low": 7.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.010222, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000381, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.26474, "worst_return": -0.271845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003332, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071444, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.184855, "worst_return": -0.358775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005181, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.076971, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.89755, "worst_return": -0.352844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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12.447095, 12.455333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.05, "volume": 131603100, "typical_volume": 109473230.0, "trend": 12.395, "fair_value": 10.022247, "relative_strength": -13.196842, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.496381, "energy": 45.181852, "activity_lines": [ 11.202, 11.983818, 12.236667, 12.304753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.68, "volume": 73651594, "typical_volume": 111285183.7, "trend": 12.355667, "fair_value": 10.006898, "relative_strength": -20.234537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.233288, "energy": 65.356691, "activity_lines": [ 10.272667, 11.226909, 11.907238, 12.065075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.21, "volume": 69571385, "typical_volume": 112192661.9, "trend": 12.308667, "fair_value": 9.987007, "relative_strength": -25.219507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.943623, "energy": 72.206951, "activity_lines": [ 9.396667, 10.497818, 11.551714, 11.797613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.65, "volume": 55287475, "typical_volume": 113293915.65, "trend": 12.170333, "fair_value": 9.962679, "relative_strength": -21.295117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.951909, "energy": 74.935548, "activity_lines": [ 8.956, 10.007818, 11.255143, 11.56157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.54, "volume": 125662109, "typical_volume": 118081585.1, "trend": 11.920333, "fair_value": 9.948195, "relative_strength": -15.353065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.111126, "energy": 72.900102, "activity_lines": [ 8.956, 9.780182, 11.056333, 11.391871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }