{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ffa2d07-951b-4339-9cc3-2de956723a06", "symbol": "8260", "name": "Gulf General Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.749, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.458, "architecture_energy": 18.392, "architecture_maturity": 23.662, "architecture_confidence": 62.405, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.75, "rotation_up": 10.29, "upward_expansion": 15.68, "deceleration": 64.0, "rotation_down": 49.65, "downward_expansion": 58.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.774667, 3.84, 3.831333, 3.82557 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.79, "trend_reference": 3.845667, "distance_from_trend": -0.014475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.036047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.580569, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.118128, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033163, "excess_performance": -0.001334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.580569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039389, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081181, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120738, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033163, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.539818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2421066, "relative_activity": 1.739117, "balance": 1.539818, "dry_up": 0.893697, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070022, "annualized_volatility": 0.233863, "from_high_reference": -0.31216, "from_low_reference": 0.079772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.845667, "fair_value_reference": 9.036047, "structural_low": 3.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.010736, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017308, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.085948, "worst_return": -0.088359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010252, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.076926, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.137384, "worst_return": -0.128895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020532, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.159737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040951, "worst_return": -0.288952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.230283, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.345376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110965, "worst_return": -0.57153, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108518, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084918, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041265, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096447, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085948, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191693, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.614931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07561, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 14.033333, "volume": 949595, "typical_volume": 869201.55, "trend": 13.432777, "fair_value": 19.251107, "relative_strength": 2.087016, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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3.829591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.79, "volume": 2421066, "typical_volume": 1392123.7, "trend": 3.845667, "fair_value": 9.036047, "relative_strength": -8.118128, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.458121, "energy": 18.391949, "activity_lines": [ 3.774667, 3.84, 3.831333, 3.82557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }