{ "ticker": { "uuid": "100129c2-8ec9-42df-886e-9cdab2fc3cf7", "symbol": "XWEQ", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Quality ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.738, "architecture_energy": 74.294, "architecture_maturity": 48.01, "architecture_confidence": 79.569, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 66.09, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 61.82, "rotation_down": 24.35, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.532001, 56.10691, 55.219107, 54.190785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 57.915001, "trend_reference": 53.117333, "distance_from_trend": 0.090322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.627294, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327495, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.972709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116757, "excess_performance": 0.065521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042313, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050144, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049727, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008033, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116757, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.678054, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1521, "relative_activity": 0.518281, "balance": 0.678054, "dry_up": 0.597165, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015141, "annualized_volatility": 0.134309, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.293756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.117333, "fair_value_reference": 43.627294, "structural_low": 47.575001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012253, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.008548, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.042608, "worst_return": -0.027863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070618, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.010827, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.075088, "worst_return": 0.016688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.110778, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025468, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.146221, "worst_return": 0.075335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 55.740002, "volume": 2809, "typical_volume": 3252.1, "trend": 52.717833, "fair_value": 43.321156, "relative_strength": 2.860743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.328807, "energy": 80.77248, "activity_lines": [ 55.886001, 55.547637, 54.564572, 53.668441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.805, "volume": 956, "typical_volume": 3165.95, "trend": 52.905833, "fair_value": 43.466829, "relative_strength": 1.604838, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.89793, "energy": 63.488661, "activity_lines": [ 55.892334, 55.646728, 54.806405, 53.867613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.915001, "volume": 1521, "typical_volume": 2934.7, "trend": 53.117333, "fair_value": 43.627294, "relative_strength": 4.972709, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.738141, "energy": 74.293932, "activity_lines": [ 56.532001, 56.10691, 55.219107, 54.190785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }