{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "100196c4-8084-4635-ba54-eb87a3ca53a2",
    "symbol": "MS1",
    "name": "Marley Spoon Group SE",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -51.864,
    "architecture_energy": 50.332,
    "architecture_maturity": 58.16,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.466,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.96,
        "rotation_up": 26.3,
        "upward_expansion": 20.56,
        "deceleration": 58.25,
        "rotation_down": 46.47,
        "downward_expansion": 70.56
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.035767,
        0.0356,
        0.086357,
        0.119533
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.0395,
    "trend_reference": 0.156667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.747872,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1.524769,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.974094,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -83.939881,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.810096,
    "excess_performance": -0.874736,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.747872,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.326455,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.974094,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.092236,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.839399,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.727059,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.810096,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.328984,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 75789,
      "relative_activity": 0.782882,
      "balance": 1.328984,
      "dry_up": 2.690911,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 1.151899,
      "annualized_volatility": 2.607344,
      "from_high_reference": -0.927523,
      "from_low_reference": 1.078947
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.156667,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.524769,
      "structural_low": 0.019,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 36,
        "median_return": -0.06671,
        "positive_rate": 0.305556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.060224,
        "regime_survival": 0.888889,
        "best_return": 1.078947,
        "worst_return": -0.479452,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
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        "worst_return": -0.633333,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.455484,
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        "worst_return": -0.745665,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": -0.88,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2024-03-08",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2024-04-19",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "relative_strength": -11.233966,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.717171,
        "energy": 18.472103,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.255467,
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          0.228561
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 0.238,
        "volume": 14916,
        "typical_volume": 30224.05,
        "trend": 0.240233,
        "fair_value": 2.240064,
        "relative_strength": -19.473049,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 12.713605,
        "energy": 18.836967,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.2528,
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          0.223981,
          0.228224
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 17743,
        "typical_volume": 25395.2,
        "trend": 0.235533,
        "fair_value": 2.177404,
        "relative_strength": -41.6984,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -23.928197,
        "energy": 10.625452,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 28538,
        "typical_volume": 25326.65,
        "trend": 0.2326,
        "fair_value": 2.114981,
        "relative_strength": -28.89626,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.15791,
        "energy": 12.483058,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 0.0605,
        "volume": 298164,
        "typical_volume": 37968.9,
        "trend": 0.225417,
        "fair_value": 2.051587,
        "relative_strength": -78.973396,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.954263,
        "energy": 50.120823,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 0.0365,
        "volume": 125580,
        "typical_volume": 42472.0,
        "trend": 0.2202,
        "fair_value": 1.988038,
        "relative_strength": -86.948503,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -77.928374,
        "energy": 74.884648,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "stage": 4,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 44992.6,
        "trend": 0.202717,
        "fair_value": 1.860304,
        "relative_strength": -86.992792,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.150319,
        "energy": 83.596251,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.051433,
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          0.176015
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 0.037,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 44714.0,
        "trend": 0.190883,
        "fair_value": 1.797721,
        "relative_strength": -86.541432,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -68.537766,
        "energy": 83.191311,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.038267,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 97206,
        "typical_volume": 49046.2,
        "trend": 0.181983,
        "fair_value": 1.737907,
        "relative_strength": -92.71837,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.598615,
        "energy": 84.297592,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.030767,
          0.067545,
          0.129419,
          0.154234
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.041,
        "volume": 673302,
        "typical_volume": 80616.55,
        "trend": 0.17515,
        "fair_value": 1.681119,
        "relative_strength": -83.767332,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.543629,
        "energy": 71.923104,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.033367,
          0.054573,
          0.117583,
          0.145139
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.042,
        "volume": 141600,
        "typical_volume": 87154.75,
        "trend": 0.168683,
        "fair_value": 1.625939,
        "relative_strength": -83.141689,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.557121,
        "energy": 62.36684,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.036,
          0.045982,
          0.106848,
          0.136548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.028,
        "volume": 151312,
        "typical_volume": 93910.7,
        "trend": 0.16255,
        "fair_value": 1.575478,
        "relative_strength": -88.690211,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.021518,
        "energy": 57.944365,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.033733,
          0.038409,
          0.095636,
          0.127472
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.0395,
        "volume": 75789,
        "typical_volume": 96807.65,
        "trend": 0.156667,
        "fair_value": 1.524769,
        "relative_strength": -83.939881,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.863532,
        "energy": 50.331717,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.035767,
          0.0356,
          0.086357,
          0.119533
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}