{ "ticker": { "uuid": "100ad4da-872c-4f48-a00a-085016cecb43", "symbol": "THERMAX", "name": "Thermax Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.025, "architecture_energy": 14.416, "architecture_maturity": 64.094, "architecture_confidence": 70.872, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.19, "rotation_up": 17.57, "upward_expansion": 48.71, "deceleration": 85.11, "rotation_down": 34.67, "downward_expansion": 26.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 4346.566634, 4500.064489, 4509.082289, 4271.21239 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4059.899902, "trend_reference": 3908.748275, "distance_from_trend": 0.03867, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3777.62084, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074724, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.751244, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.413319, "excess_performance": 0.457028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03867, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161664, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074724, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137512, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.413319, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.301958, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1816869, "relative_activity": 1.398801, "balance": 0.301958, "dry_up": 1.587902, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094527, "annualized_volatility": 0.397706, "from_high_reference": -0.196753, "from_low_reference": 0.480257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3908.748275, "fair_value_reference": 3777.62084, "structural_low": 2749.800049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.011377, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.024702, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.18933, "worst_return": -0.130387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062633, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.057992, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.213737, "worst_return": -0.05447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.308799, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.22914, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.745809, "worst_return": -0.224846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123425, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.181535, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088285, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036008, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022334, "active": false }, { 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.421329, "energy": 34.853789, "activity_lines": [ 4644.610579, 4685.832697, 4526.418948, 4228.620561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4306.0, "volume": 4260281, "typical_volume": 1300017.8, "trend": 3874.198275, "fair_value": 3767.804334, "relative_strength": 22.071486, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.80759, "energy": 23.318097, "activity_lines": [ 4519.833333, 4614.135138, 4532.053004, 4259.23164 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4059.899902, "volume": 1816869, "typical_volume": 1298875.7, "trend": 3908.748275, "fair_value": 3777.62084, "relative_strength": 13.751244, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.024825, "energy": 14.416283, "activity_lines": [ 4346.566634, 4500.064489, 4509.082289, 4271.21239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }