{ "ticker": { "uuid": "100d8fce-d4d4-4c32-8140-0d29288ebf30", "symbol": "MIB3S", "name": "SG ETC FTSE MIB -3x Daily Short Collateralized", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.351, "architecture_energy": 69.032, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.331, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.63, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.05, "rotation_down": 57.01, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.046767, 3.100464, 3.390786, 3.823603 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.838, "trend_reference": 4.3692, "distance_from_trend": -0.350453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.533936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.730585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.429174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.467042, "excess_performance": -0.637934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.350453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185919, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.730585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.554292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070069, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.467042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148832, "relative_activity": 0.994794, "balance": 0.783009, "dry_up": 1.21497, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100382, "annualized_volatility": 0.542561, "from_high_reference": -0.627706, "from_low_reference": 0.009964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.3692, "fair_value_reference": 10.533936, "structural_low": 2.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.032967, "positive_rate": 0.340426, "directional_follow_through": 0.659574, "median_excess_return": -0.041478, "regime_survival": 0.914894, "best_return": 97.916903, "worst_return": -0.376438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.16726, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.216174, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 74.772668, "worst_return": -0.337498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.293712, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.394532, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 59.913465, "worst_return": -0.445035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.303946, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.336252, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 61.369509, "worst_return": -0.649103, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2022-02-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.26532, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-03-04", "end": "2022-04-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.32919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-04-08", "end": "2022-06-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.26266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-06-24", "end": "2022-08-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-08-12", "end": "2022-11-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.234444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.429277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137405, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043269, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.242098, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": 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"typical_volume": 157523.15, "trend": 4.53745, "fair_value": 10.500157, "relative_strength": -50.391542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.393749, "energy": 70.455362, "activity_lines": [ 3.1541, 3.209618, 3.590274, 4.019265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.1225, "volume": 155817, "typical_volume": 151181.0, "trend": 4.4558, "fair_value": 10.517998, "relative_strength": -50.540977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.927631, "energy": 62.711659, "activity_lines": [ 3.141667, 3.175464, 3.497793, 3.927977 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.838, "volume": 148832, "typical_volume": 149610.9, "trend": 4.3692, "fair_value": 10.533936, "relative_strength": -55.429174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.351185, "energy": 69.031619, "activity_lines": [ 3.046767, 3.100464, 3.390786, 3.823603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }