{ "ticker": { "uuid": "101104b0-1e5e-4e6e-8d21-10bcbb55c7f5", "symbol": "LSAK", "name": "Lesaka Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.622, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.455, "architecture_energy": 8.835, "architecture_maturity": 7.998, "architecture_confidence": 63.567, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.64, "rotation_up": 33.83, "upward_expansion": 14.53, "deceleration": 45.65, "rotation_down": 36.79, "downward_expansion": 44.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.725333, 4.729545, 4.771357, 4.788118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.89, "trend_reference": 4.770833, "distance_from_trend": 0.024978, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.476199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.614816, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.118993, "excess_performance": -0.06846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024978, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036912, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033505, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.880377, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1064500, "relative_activity": 1.606193, "balance": 0.880377, "dry_up": 1.06236, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071516, "annualized_volatility": 0.217758, "from_high_reference": -0.117329, "from_low_reference": 0.350829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.770833, "fair_value_reference": 4.476199, "structural_low": 4.13, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.053192, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.036643, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.181416, "worst_return": -0.146805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.081579, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065457, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.262003, "worst_return": -0.321773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.078947, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.133353, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.271029, "worst_return": -0.392055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.068881, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.127499, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.289438, "worst_return": -0.274227, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037665, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141892, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019651, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055202, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041565, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.114078, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017058, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002141, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012195, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081858, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.75, "volume": 67991, "typical_volume": 191694.0, "trend": 4.009667, "fair_value": 4.52891, "relative_strength": -21.136201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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4.448956, "relative_strength": -8.904729, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.308199, "energy": 9.146711, "activity_lines": [ 4.778, 4.780273, 4.82631, 4.803065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.77, "volume": 464248, "typical_volume": 618476.5, "trend": 4.757833, "fair_value": 4.456328, "relative_strength": -6.222478, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.886968, "energy": 12.723538, "activity_lines": [ 4.790333, 4.773818, 4.818905, 4.804581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.52, "volume": 1056577, "typical_volume": 655629.65, "trend": 4.763167, "fair_value": 4.461199, "relative_strength": -9.475584, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.101812, "energy": 12.114086, "activity_lines": [ 4.714667, 4.723545, 4.787214, 4.789237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.62, "volume": 230979, "typical_volume": 648099.35, "trend": 4.764167, "fair_value": 4.468251, "relative_strength": -7.628165, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.020258, "energy": 15.734973, "activity_lines": [ 4.672667, 4.699091, 4.765714, 4.78 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.89, "volume": 1064500, "typical_volume": 662747.4, "trend": 4.770833, "fair_value": 4.476199, "relative_strength": -6.614816, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.455207, "energy": 8.835205, "activity_lines": [ 4.725333, 4.729545, 4.771357, 4.788118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }