{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10114778-a190-48e0-934e-dd97cfaaeb57", "symbol": "FISK", "name": "Empire State Realty OP LP 250", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.228, "architecture_energy": 26.853, "architecture_maturity": 15.567, "architecture_confidence": 85.378, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.48, "rotation_up": 24.23, "upward_expansion": 13.42, "deceleration": 43.98, "rotation_down": 46.09, "downward_expansion": 66.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.263333, 5.295286, 5.316751, 5.337891 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.21, "trend_reference": 5.477806, "distance_from_trend": -0.048889, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.926174, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342684, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.857922, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.214434, "excess_performance": -0.340059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048889, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342684, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006779, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044625, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1671, "relative_activity": 0.595096, "balance": 0.508399, "dry_up": 0.397176, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040659, "annualized_volatility": 0.328227, "from_high_reference": -0.349684, "from_low_reference": 0.167849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.477806, "fair_value_reference": 7.926174, "structural_low": 4.461192, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002843, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.009569, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.085981, "worst_return": -0.138801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.097037, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.08977, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25104, "worst_return": -0.218774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.254098, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.168417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02075, "worst_return": -0.348856, "sufficient": false 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.120452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052782, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039672, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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5.398529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.42, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 2816.65, "trend": 5.558573, "fair_value": 7.966691, "relative_strength": -19.834424, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.258807, "energy": 20.261946, "activity_lines": [ 5.421333, 5.362103, 5.339589, 5.387364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.095, "volume": 2690, "typical_volume": 2918.7, "trend": 5.513259, "fair_value": 7.946768, "relative_strength": -24.689069, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.002557, "energy": 20.188458, "activity_lines": [ 5.324333, 5.314755, 5.322547, 5.357456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.21, "volume": 1671, "typical_volume": 2807.95, "trend": 5.477806, "fair_value": 7.926174, "relative_strength": -24.857922, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.228165, "energy": 26.853444, "activity_lines": [ 5.263333, 5.295286, 5.316751, 5.337891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }