{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10136c7c-bd0d-43fa-9271-156a4685a91f", "symbol": "XMJP", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.098, "architecture_energy": 26.791, "architecture_maturity": 60.368, "architecture_confidence": 85.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.15, "rotation_up": 31.81, "upward_expansion": 58.01, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 29.63, "downward_expansion": 21.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 8722.6, 8747.454545, 8651.328571, 8517.752688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8991.5, "trend_reference": 8356.433333, "distance_from_trend": 0.075997, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6788.205253, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324577, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.053406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1042, "excess_performance": 0.052965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075997, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034336, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040534, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724372, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14850, "relative_activity": 0.351613, "balance": 0.724372, "dry_up": 0.462915, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032105, "annualized_volatility": 0.217006, "from_high_reference": -0.088917, "from_low_reference": 0.297475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8356.433333, "fair_value_reference": 6788.205253, "structural_low": 7543.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.014802, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.004097, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.088486, "worst_return": -0.091008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 7.7e-05, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.018808, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.152214, "worst_return": -0.025253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058976, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002108, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.146049, "worst_return": -0.090485, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06859, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0264, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005635, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152276, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048083, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5305.5, "volume": 7118, "typical_volume": 9284.7, "trend": 5422.6, "fair_value": 5298.849359, "relative_strength": 3.906515, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"typical_volume": 43340.5, "trend": 8318.016667, "fair_value": 6765.843074, "relative_strength": -0.272237, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.055226, "energy": 21.85835, "activity_lines": [ 8614.866667, 8697.5, 8598.045238, 8474.302151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8991.5, "volume": 14850, "typical_volume": 42233.95, "trend": 8356.433333, "fair_value": 6788.205253, "relative_strength": 4.053406, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.098334, "energy": 26.79142, "activity_lines": [ 8722.6, 8747.454545, 8651.328571, 8517.752688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }