{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10183d6d-a1e5-430b-bac8-8b3978f7091b", "symbol": "CEPU", "name": "Central Puerto S.A.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.11, "architecture_energy": 32.25, "architecture_maturity": 16.324, "architecture_confidence": 91.911, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.06, "rotation_up": 21.2, "upward_expansion": 8.67, "deceleration": 39.25, "rotation_down": 49.75, "downward_expansion": 75.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.605333, 14.778182, 14.828048, 14.957312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.98, "trend_reference": 15.18, "distance_from_trend": -0.079051, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.430908, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.811392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.10442, "excess_performance": -0.230045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026778, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096008, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.006133, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1080260, "relative_activity": 0.720878, "balance": 1.006133, "dry_up": 0.658124, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104094, "annualized_volatility": 0.438539, "from_high_reference": -0.244439, "from_low_reference": 0.881561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.18, "fair_value_reference": 11.430908, "structural_low": 13.59, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.043063, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.009666, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.35521, "worst_return": -0.269001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.31942, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.248173, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.721865, "worst_return": -0.179093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.314822, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.291841, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.828915, "worst_return": 0.124767, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.299808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150653, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103327, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134927, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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6.515009, "activity_lines": [ 15.104667, 15.049273, 15.0, 15.172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.27, "volume": 827242, "typical_volume": 1651325.6, "trend": 15.440333, "fair_value": 11.26135, "relative_strength": -6.382956, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.386462, "energy": 21.904611, "activity_lines": [ 14.773333, 14.944182, 14.924238, 15.089441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.78, "volume": 869432, "typical_volume": 1619182.8, "trend": 15.348667, "fair_value": 11.317699, "relative_strength": -2.53811, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.745038, "energy": 19.05455, "activity_lines": [ 14.724, 14.928909, 14.90381, 15.046839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.26, "volume": 1167950, "typical_volume": 1566586.5, "trend": 15.279, "fair_value": 11.380087, "relative_strength": -0.535446, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.098211, "energy": 11.919512, "activity_lines": [ 14.894, 14.982182, 14.927143, 15.041118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.98, "volume": 1080260, "typical_volume": 1498534.2, "trend": 15.18, "fair_value": 11.430908, "relative_strength": -11.811392, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.109641, "energy": 32.250006, "activity_lines": [ 14.605333, 14.778182, 14.828048, 14.957312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }