{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1019f3cc-69e2-485c-be71-e4f011f0efd6", "symbol": "EMLC", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK J. P. MORGAN EM LOCAL CURRENCY BO", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.566, "architecture_energy": 18.642, "architecture_maturity": 33.226, "architecture_confidence": 48.439, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.42, "rotation_up": 42.23, "upward_expansion": 44.84, "deceleration": 38.37, "rotation_down": 32.12, "downward_expansion": 12.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.406112, 25.369531, 25.319436, 25.297751 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.72, "trend_reference": 25.331883, "distance_from_trend": 0.015321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.849621, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.431856, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002431, "excess_performance": -0.128055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015321, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005738, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12562, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002431, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.177173, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7903769, "relative_activity": 0.610746, "balance": 1.177173, "dry_up": 0.569201, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01312, "annualized_volatility": 0.095212, "from_high_reference": -0.013669, "from_low_reference": 0.077785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.331883, "fair_value_reference": 22.849621, "structural_low": 24.396195, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008433, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.021996, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.017178, "worst_return": -0.067469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029984, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.040279, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.043143, "worst_return": -0.12211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.060688, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.131338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.000554, "worst_return": -0.145919, "sufficient": false }, { 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"direction": -37.154841, "energy": 15.746189, "activity_lines": [ 25.242875, 25.278726, 25.254826, 25.269686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.340701, "volume": 8115815, "typical_volume": 14234495.95, "trend": 25.314762, "fair_value": 22.820211, "relative_strength": -6.848223, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.712297, "energy": 10.309207, "activity_lines": [ 25.25978, 25.292196, 25.270568, 25.271607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.72, "volume": 7903769, "typical_volume": 12941169.85, "trend": 25.331883, "fair_value": 22.849621, "relative_strength": -8.431856, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.56586, "energy": 18.641693, "activity_lines": [ 25.406112, 25.369531, 25.319436, 25.297751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }