{ "ticker": { "uuid": "101ad834-ddb3-495c-9a6b-4e170e211a8e", "symbol": "RC1", "name": "Redcastle Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.217, "architecture_energy": 76.96, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.41, "rotation_up": 14.97, "upward_expansion": 18.39, "deceleration": 37.7, "rotation_down": 70.34, "downward_expansion": 94.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.107, 0.113182, 0.12531, 0.135151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.105, "trend_reference": 0.147, "distance_from_trend": -0.285714, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.120179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.240451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.463706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126307, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.500719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.687319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.06211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118641, "relative_activity": 0.222214, "balance": 0.06211, "dry_up": 0.497623, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152015, "annualized_volatility": 0.742004, "from_high_reference": -0.596154, "from_low_reference": 0.438356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.147, "fair_value_reference": 0.120179, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.290323, "median_excess_return": 0.012025, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.017762, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.6, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.059166, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.1, 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"2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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-61.447363, "energy": 43.931006, "activity_lines": [ 0.123667, 0.126, 0.138857, 0.14557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.115, "volume": 356379, "typical_volume": 676025.1, "trend": 0.1478, "fair_value": 0.120404, "relative_strength": -6.922281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.407648, "energy": 48.017323, "activity_lines": [ 0.121333, 0.123, 0.135762, 0.143501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.11, "volume": 442708, "typical_volume": 664055.85, "trend": 0.1483, "fair_value": 0.12034, "relative_strength": -11.263709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.342218, "energy": 59.764458, "activity_lines": [ 0.116667, 0.12, 0.1325, 0.141062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1, "volume": 145002, "typical_volume": 616488.85, "trend": 0.148333, "fair_value": 0.120212, "relative_strength": -21.372111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.570713, "energy": 73.469327, "activity_lines": [ 0.11, 0.115818, 0.128524, 0.137946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.105, "volume": 118641, "typical_volume": 533903.6, "trend": 0.147, "fair_value": 0.120179, "relative_strength": -20.240451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.217387, "energy": 76.960217, "activity_lines": [ 0.107, 0.113182, 0.12531, 0.135151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }