{ "ticker": { "uuid": "101c5d44-347a-4029-8307-657b2969c795", "symbol": "XDWS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Staples UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.681, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.78, "architecture_energy": 48.896, "architecture_maturity": 16.728, "architecture_confidence": 63.98, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.94, "rotation_up": 66.21, "upward_expansion": 82.03, "deceleration": 53.17, "rotation_down": 15.13, "downward_expansion": 6.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.957666, 44.725272, 44.0835, 43.804494 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.0, "trend_reference": 43.516167, "distance_from_trend": 0.034098, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.962381, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072389, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.910696, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016031, "excess_performance": -0.066853, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034098, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02666, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05474, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029129, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016031, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.694972, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 675, "relative_activity": 0.086374, "balance": 0.694972, "dry_up": 0.463285, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023538, "annualized_volatility": 0.133868, "from_high_reference": -0.129873, "from_low_reference": 0.127678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.516167, "fair_value_reference": 41.962381, "structural_low": 41.625, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.004299, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.346154, "median_excess_return": 0.000482, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.049229, "worst_return": -0.19987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00468, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.005158, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.043677, "worst_return": -0.187398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042445, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.012477, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.043553, "worst_return": -0.171156, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 41.977376, "relative_strength": -3.533277, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.227985, "energy": 79.842532, "activity_lines": [ 44.673332, 44.19209, 43.627452, 43.474699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.759998, "volume": 801, "typical_volume": 7286.95, "trend": 43.244167, "fair_value": 41.966765, "relative_strength": -4.414281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.381383, "energy": 67.325065, "activity_lines": [ 44.756665, 44.360635, 43.766642, 43.581591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.084999, "volume": 12293, "typical_volume": 7865.7, "trend": 43.385833, "fair_value": 41.965151, "relative_strength": -3.664474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.535055, "energy": 50.08008, "activity_lines": [ 44.879665, 44.565999, 43.933666, 43.700355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.0, "volume": 675, "typical_volume": 7814.85, "trend": 43.516167, "fair_value": 41.962381, "relative_strength": -4.910696, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.77989, "energy": 48.896137, "activity_lines": [ 44.957666, 44.725272, 44.0835, 43.804494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }