{ "ticker": { "uuid": "101d0a8a-09ef-473a-b897-6e7d1abb7841", "symbol": "ABP", "name": "Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.825, "architecture_energy": 24.01, "architecture_maturity": 60.151, "architecture_confidence": 82.449, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.1, "rotation_up": 23.82, "upward_expansion": 13.85, "deceleration": 43.8, "rotation_down": 34.7, "downward_expansion": 61.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.86, 5.836364, 5.939762, 6.098387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.95, "trend_reference": 6.336667, "distance_from_trend": -0.061021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.177575, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.560482, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15, "excess_performance": -0.320892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115718, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.261654, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29000, "relative_activity": 0.828571, "balance": 1.261654, "dry_up": 0.598214, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071752, "annualized_volatility": 0.330399, "from_high_reference": -0.227273, "from_low_reference": 0.144231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.336667, "fair_value_reference": 5.177575, "structural_low": 5.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.015008, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.122642, "worst_return": -0.15873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.104878, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.072917, "worst_return": -0.069767, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.252841, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.120172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": 0.068182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042735, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126984, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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6.601667, "fair_value": 5.089154, "relative_strength": -23.641168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.628413, "energy": 74.750351, "activity_lines": [ 5.65, 5.865455, 6.13, 6.331398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.95, "volume": 27250, "typical_volume": 33550.0, "trend": 6.558333, "fair_value": 5.103748, "relative_strength": -22.498429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.085226, "energy": 47.43092, "activity_lines": [ 5.74, 5.848182, 6.093333, 6.289355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.95, "volume": 13750, "typical_volume": 33262.5, "trend": 6.516667, "fair_value": 5.118095, "relative_strength": -22.05049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.177739, "energy": 30.216236, "activity_lines": [ 5.85, 5.840909, 6.061429, 6.250108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.0, "volume": 26750, "typical_volume": 33575.0, "trend": 6.476667, "fair_value": 5.133258, "relative_strength": -20.184567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.621813, "energy": 24.485372, "activity_lines": [ 5.93, 5.850909, 6.038095, 6.216774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.8, "volume": 14500, "typical_volume": 33875.0, "trend": 6.43, "fair_value": 5.147882, "relative_strength": -22.514627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.985273, "energy": 21.965473, "activity_lines": [ 5.896667, 5.832727, 5.999286, 6.173118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.7, "volume": 13500, "typical_volume": 34400.0, "trend": 6.378333, "fair_value": 5.162733, "relative_strength": -24.030393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.741757, "energy": 26.925742, "activity_lines": [ 5.836667, 5.805455, 5.955238, 6.126022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.95, "volume": 29000, "typical_volume": 35000.0, "trend": 6.336667, "fair_value": 5.177575, "relative_strength": -22.560482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.825473, "energy": 24.009583, "activity_lines": [ 5.86, 5.836364, 5.939762, 6.098387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }