{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "101dc7b5-68cd-4f27-a731-5b967e486adb",
    "symbol": "EXS1",
    "name": "iShares Core DAX UCITS ETF (DE)",
    "exchange": "AMS",
    "country": "NL",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AEX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 59.941,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 82.217,
    "architecture_energy": 70.912,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.672,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.127,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.82,
        "rotation_up": 66.96,
        "upward_expansion": 87.87,
        "deceleration": 46.42,
        "rotation_down": 15.75,
        "downward_expansion": 14.54
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        211.183333,
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        204.201785
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 217.25,
    "trend_reference": 202.867001,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.070899,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 173.907949,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249224,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.829369,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.061569,
    "excess_performance": -0.055094,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070899,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013474,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.249224,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054763,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038294,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019466,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061569,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.770434,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6274,
      "relative_activity": 1.087989,
      "balance": 1.770434,
      "dry_up": 1.153583,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.025136,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.191672,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002525,
      "from_low_reference": 0.200276
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 202.867001,
      "fair_value_reference": 173.907949,
      "structural_low": 181.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 27,
        "median_return": -0.001189,
        "positive_rate": 0.481481,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.481481,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004841,
        "regime_survival": 0.740741,
        "best_return": 0.115483,
        "worst_return": -0.101558,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.005722,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
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        "worst_return": -0.056788,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
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        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017897,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
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        "worst_return": -0.011711,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": 0.018827,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 6036.1,
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        "fair_value": 171.983462,
        "relative_strength": -7.251478,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.869774,
        "energy": 51.276182,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 204.699997,
        "volume": 11041,
        "typical_volume": 6433.7,
        "trend": 202.147001,
        "fair_value": 172.426923,
        "relative_strength": -8.537116,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.240795,
        "energy": 42.707951,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 206.850006,
        "volume": 2065,
        "typical_volume": 6014.8,
        "trend": 202.327001,
        "fair_value": 172.868141,
        "relative_strength": -7.134748,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.138856,
        "energy": 47.124795,
        "activity_lines": [
          206.810002,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 211.199997,
        "volume": 7229,
        "typical_volume": 5765.1,
        "trend": 202.598667,
        "fair_value": 173.36532,
        "relative_strength": -5.724627,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.369391,
        "energy": 42.924543,
        "activity_lines": [
          208.25,
          207.296364,
          204.955524,
          203.256538
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 217.25,
        "volume": 6274,
        "typical_volume": 5766.6,
        "trend": 202.867001,
        "fair_value": 173.907949,
        "relative_strength": -3.829369,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.216652,
        "energy": 70.911618,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}