{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10258611-fee8-462e-a2f0-618365f31616", "symbol": "ASTRON", "name": "Astron Paper & Board Mill Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.566, "architecture_energy": 31.921, "architecture_maturity": 39.069, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.76, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 5.19, "deceleration": 51.73, "rotation_down": 48.33, "downward_expansion": 76.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.839333, 3.867273, 3.968333, 4.015892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.74, "trend_reference": 4.124333, "distance_from_trend": -0.093187, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.609295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.787612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.968749, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048346, "excess_performance": -0.004637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192152, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.787612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.439687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121839, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.430909, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 216916, "relative_activity": 1.259084, "balance": 0.430909, "dry_up": 0.930772, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090292, "annualized_volatility": 0.511876, "from_high_reference": -0.802012, "from_low_reference": 0.147239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.124333, "fair_value_reference": 17.609295, "structural_low": 3.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.034826, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.032573, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.482759, "worst_return": -0.314136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.111628, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.128289, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.383831, "worst_return": -0.499522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.170627, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.218108, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.006342, "worst_return": -0.559694, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -63.720116, "energy": 44.923922, "activity_lines": [ 3.838, 3.883818, 4.016429, 4.087441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.14, "volume": 212856, "typical_volume": 190343.1, "trend": 4.264667, "fair_value": 17.920256, "relative_strength": -39.569953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.399449, "energy": 22.607114, "activity_lines": [ 3.926, 3.920182, 4.024238, 4.074946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.8, "volume": 170256, "typical_volume": 181595.5, "trend": 4.190667, "fair_value": 17.778269, "relative_strength": -44.308201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.664192, "energy": 31.570874, "activity_lines": [ 3.889333, 3.896909, 3.998476, 4.044968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.74, "volume": 216916, "typical_volume": 172280.85, "trend": 4.124333, "fair_value": 17.609295, "relative_strength": -43.968749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.566366, "energy": 31.920758, "activity_lines": [ 3.839333, 3.867273, 3.968333, 4.015892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }