{ "ticker": { "uuid": "102adce2-8c70-453d-9d5e-d4a6de3e16c2", "symbol": "PINS", "name": "Pinterest Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.082, "architecture_energy": 67.015, "architecture_maturity": 14.414, "architecture_confidence": 70.882, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.62, "rotation_up": 70.2, "upward_expansion": 90.59, "deceleration": 42.74, "rotation_down": 11.94, "downward_expansion": 14.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.316667, 22.613273, 21.591286, 20.88843 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.68, "trend_reference": 20.499, "distance_from_trend": 0.155178, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.595769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.226037, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.657129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.208163, "excess_performance": 0.082538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.155178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065523, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.226037, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087269, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156571, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.208163, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.568204, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86406211, "relative_activity": 1.078918, "balance": 1.568204, "dry_up": 0.742866, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087172, "annualized_volatility": 0.5795, "from_high_reference": -0.386051, "from_low_reference": 0.710983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.499, "fair_value_reference": 30.595769, "structural_low": 13.84, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.028443, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": -0.042673, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.186726, "worst_return": -0.297893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.053189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063021, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.212585, "worst_return": -0.275129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003979, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.128099, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.325132, "worst_return": -0.500983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.177089, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.431652, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.394737, "worst_return": -0.529022, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02825, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153194, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.204812, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193784, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010526, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035067, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04042, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": 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"volume": 50705614, "typical_volume": 87705894.55, "trend": 20.833, "fair_value": 30.666731, "relative_strength": -17.721615, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.195518, "energy": 53.671397, "activity_lines": [ 22.28, 21.518727, 20.722286, 20.393376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.13, "volume": 43695384, "typical_volume": 83557685.25, "trend": 20.699333, "fair_value": 30.626218, "relative_strength": -19.825305, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.073996, "energy": 50.575007, "activity_lines": [ 22.398, 21.736545, 20.919048, 20.477054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.01, "volume": 57165535, "typical_volume": 80892885.55, "trend": 20.614333, "fair_value": 30.609231, "relative_strength": -12.641255, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.437869, "energy": 67.660912, "activity_lines": [ 23.018667, 22.247818, 21.284762, 20.690645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.68, "volume": 86406211, "typical_volume": 80086010.75, "trend": 20.499, "fair_value": 30.595769, "relative_strength": -15.657129, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.081702, "energy": 67.015049, "activity_lines": [ 23.316667, 22.613273, 21.591286, 20.88843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }