{ "ticker": { "uuid": "102f5a45-2407-494e-a668-a6d9f3a0d466", "symbol": "600359", "name": "Xinjiang Talimu Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.441, "architecture_energy": 40.024, "architecture_maturity": 72.883, "architecture_confidence": 60.889, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.31, "rotation_up": 26.13, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 66.75, "rotation_down": 42.19, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.853333, 5.823091, 6.17881, 6.467849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.07, "trend_reference": 6.831, "distance_from_trend": -0.111404, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.804038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.014298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234552, "excess_performance": -0.191349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111404, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096879, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.709553, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38818713, "relative_activity": 1.097699, "balance": 0.709553, "dry_up": 0.981589, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079077, "annualized_volatility": 0.365829, "from_high_reference": -0.281657, "from_low_reference": 0.12616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.831, "fair_value_reference": 6.804038, "structural_low": 5.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.006658, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.005348, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.190413, "worst_return": -0.175583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.037395, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.007101, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.136298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068641, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.048134, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.144462, "worst_return": -0.177015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.755699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.81, "volume": 34856944, "typical_volume": 45114770.35, "trend": 6.968667, "fair_value": 6.845577, "relative_strength": -13.270244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.686377, "energy": 81.478767, "activity_lines": [ 5.716667, 5.944545, 6.406714, 6.678731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.51, "volume": 35782663, "typical_volume": 39088032.5, "trend": 6.913, "fair_value": 6.830128, "relative_strength": -18.322268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.013726, "energy": 68.088094, "activity_lines": [ 5.646, 5.820545, 6.290095, 6.584624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.9, "volume": 29392184, "typical_volume": 36619981.7, "trend": 6.867, "fair_value": 6.816538, "relative_strength": -12.498675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.281864, "energy": 53.020583, "activity_lines": [ 5.734667, 5.798545, 6.222095, 6.519269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.07, "volume": 38818713, "typical_volume": 35363709.75, "trend": 6.831, "fair_value": 6.804038, "relative_strength": -12.014298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.440816, "energy": 40.024348, "activity_lines": [ 5.853333, 5.823091, 6.17881, 6.467849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }