{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10383184-b877-4835-abe6-dc9fefa0360f", "symbol": "ETY", "name": "Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.327, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.194, "architecture_energy": 17.684, "architecture_maturity": 19.688, "architecture_confidence": 58.327, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.9, "rotation_up": 43.81, "upward_expansion": 63.85, "deceleration": 50.48, "rotation_down": 23.26, "downward_expansion": 16.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.436751, 14.391382, 14.431866, 14.362109 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.65, "trend_reference": 14.347281, "distance_from_trend": 0.021099, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.746439, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.251883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007042, "excess_performance": -0.118583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021099, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149341, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.830567, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1777612, "relative_activity": 1.329147, "balance": 0.830567, "dry_up": 1.003206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030748, "annualized_volatility": 0.164745, "from_high_reference": -0.028531, "from_low_reference": 0.139528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.347281, "fair_value_reference": 12.746439, "structural_low": 12.856201, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012239, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.007199, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.034188, "worst_return": -0.084486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00118, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006721, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.053343, "worst_return": -0.083906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031687, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036148, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.143893, "worst_return": -0.026556, 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"fair_value": 12.655283, "relative_strength": -10.203728, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.96478, "energy": 9.259606, "activity_lines": [ 14.342599, 14.387524, 14.382826, 14.349958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.24, "volume": 1108305, "typical_volume": 1309688.05, "trend": 14.364588, "fair_value": 12.683606, "relative_strength": -9.417334, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.130951, "energy": 8.357353, "activity_lines": [ 14.309377, 14.347299, 14.382122, 14.340822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4, "volume": 1407302, "typical_volume": 1312707.75, "trend": 14.355449, "fair_value": 12.714272, "relative_strength": -9.049768, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.416942, "energy": 5.854604, "activity_lines": [ 14.343587, 14.34416, 14.396314, 14.343106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.65, "volume": 1777612, "typical_volume": 1337408.1, "trend": 14.347281, "fair_value": 12.746439, "relative_strength": -10.251883, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.194091, "energy": 17.683545, "activity_lines": [ 14.436751, 14.391382, 14.431866, 14.362109 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }