{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1038e248-768a-47a3-a8a2-5a18fbb73b2b", "symbol": "FAST", "name": "Fastenal Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.109, "architecture_energy": 51.247, "architecture_maturity": 28.195, "architecture_confidence": 61.613, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.87, "rotation_up": 61.45, "upward_expansion": 76.81, "deceleration": 61.71, "rotation_down": 16.55, "downward_expansion": 5.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.963902, 41.51671, 40.50493, 40.041706 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.275002, "trend_reference": 39.391425, "distance_from_trend": 0.123976, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.814132, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309364, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.360689, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103601, "excess_performance": -0.070646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.123976, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056827, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159044, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098073, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103601, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.662227, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1246, "relative_activity": 4.513675, "balance": 0.662227, "dry_up": 4.169535, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040736, "annualized_volatility": 0.244886, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.320008 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.391425, "fair_value_reference": 33.814132, "structural_low": 36.639999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.002488, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.02306, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.165738, "worst_return": -0.142961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004529, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043022, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.15819, "worst_return": -0.098801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042796, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.04215, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.204585, "worst_return": -0.083008, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-03", "close": 42.206234, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.4, "trend": 38.327916, "fair_value": 33.257177, "relative_strength": -12.052126, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.581167, "energy": 75.760232, "activity_lines": [ 41.184353, 40.176961, 39.566015, 39.154455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.894588, "volume": 263, "typical_volume": 47.55, "trend": 38.518228, "fair_value": 33.368917, "relative_strength": -13.323293, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.801412, "energy": 65.49297, "activity_lines": [ 41.149648, 40.457004, 39.720011, 39.320047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.129459, "volume": 2665, "typical_volume": 179.1, "trend": 38.672012, "fair_value": 33.471257, "relative_strength": -12.816833, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.528399, "energy": 55.571085, "activity_lines": [ 40.88126, 40.541213, 39.787173, 39.423998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.830002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 179.1, "trend": 38.864942, "fair_value": 33.575128, "relative_strength": -12.00279, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.661223, "energy": 39.282375, "activity_lines": [ 40.86809, 40.701712, 39.914188, 39.563223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.110001, "volume": 693, "typical_volume": 213.75, "trend": 39.10357, "fair_value": 33.685468, "relative_strength": -10.887662, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.958314, "energy": 32.78291, "activity_lines": [ 40.883587, 40.851484, 40.062683, 39.708065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.275002, "volume": 1246, "typical_volume": 276.05, "trend": 39.391425, "fair_value": 33.814132, "relative_strength": -6.360689, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.10894, "energy": 51.247212, "activity_lines": [ 41.963902, 41.51671, 40.50493, 40.041706 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }