{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10391c94-4bf3-434f-82c8-44ae41f5e497", "symbol": "DBVT", "name": "DBV Technologies", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.788, "architecture_energy": 78.094, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.117, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 12.67, "upward_expansion": 17.91, "deceleration": 38.22, "rotation_down": 74.26, "downward_expansion": 93.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.878667, 14.696909, 16.273238, 17.403828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.48, "trend_reference": 18.8505, "distance_from_trend": -0.2849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.37798, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.647643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.365945, "excess_performance": -0.553399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.2849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019327, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.575372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.394678, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.365945, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.541549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2760831, "relative_activity": 2.043528, "balance": 0.541549, "dry_up": 1.445784, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146056, "annualized_volatility": 0.405942, "from_high_reference": -0.485201, "from_low_reference": 0.549425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.8505, "fair_value_reference": 10.37798, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.053557, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.050506, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.590106, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.157429, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.225479, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.181818, "worst_return": -0.527508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053743, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.236741, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.808219, "worst_return": -0.700205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.990455, 18.296405, 19.012527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.49, "volume": 923358, "typical_volume": 1223130.9, "trend": 19.6065, "fair_value": 10.427275, "relative_strength": -13.528185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.006805, "energy": 64.053051, "activity_lines": [ 16.149, 16.754182, 18.035333, 18.807419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.7, "volume": 1470359, "typical_volume": 1256824.35, "trend": 19.337833, "fair_value": 10.415737, "relative_strength": -19.760243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.65641, "energy": 63.227267, "activity_lines": [ 15.631333, 16.253909, 17.627452, 18.490871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.63, "volume": 1405097, "typical_volume": 1261888.8, "trend": 19.153167, "fair_value": 10.401826, "relative_strength": -24.568101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.020601, "energy": 69.979498, "activity_lines": [ 14.938, 15.650545, 17.147619, 18.122624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.5, "volume": 2176798, "typical_volume": 1262398.25, "trend": 18.968167, "fair_value": 10.389647, "relative_strength": -25.874731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.064301, "energy": 72.798039, "activity_lines": [ 14.328, 15.133, 16.694643, 17.757903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.48, "volume": 2760831, "typical_volume": 1351012.2, "trend": 18.8505, "fair_value": 10.37798, "relative_strength": -29.647643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.788414, "energy": 78.093726, "activity_lines": [ 13.878667, 14.696909, 16.273238, 17.403828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }