{ "ticker": { "uuid": "104ad729-c9ad-4eae-b8c4-6dd036226a45", "symbol": "XNIF", "name": "Xtrackers Nifty 50 Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.266, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.767, "architecture_energy": 7.037, "architecture_maturity": 20.278, "architecture_confidence": 48.186, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.59, "rotation_up": 29.86, "upward_expansion": 32.51, "deceleration": 39.34, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 47.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 210.813333, 210.689636, 208.821095, 209.366989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 213.949997, "trend_reference": 212.318333, "distance_from_trend": 0.007685, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 234.480384, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087557, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.967543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072525, "excess_performance": -0.243416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043699, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087557, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03086, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072525, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450157, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196, "relative_activity": 0.26069, "balance": 0.450157, "dry_up": 0.467846, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023287, "annualized_volatility": 0.168649, "from_high_reference": -0.135206, "from_low_reference": 0.091972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 212.318333, "fair_value_reference": 234.480384, "structural_low": 195.929993, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.018562, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.012286, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.09358, "worst_return": -0.068237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031702, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.035062, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.112818, "worst_return": -0.155235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008194, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.088929, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078115, "worst_return": -0.10994, 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"direction": -0.072376, "energy": 21.065352, "activity_lines": [ 211.936, 209.599272, 208.013523, 210.156709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 204.669998, "volume": 679, "typical_volume": 874.8, "trend": 213.947, "fair_value": 234.411731, "relative_strength": -19.684734, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.990189, "energy": 15.154508, "activity_lines": [ 209.436666, 209.080727, 207.744999, 209.48886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 211.130005, "volume": 358, "typical_volume": 851.4, "trend": 213.022, "fair_value": 234.433974, "relative_strength": -17.149056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.081296, "energy": 7.662446, "activity_lines": [ 209.581335, 209.695091, 208.154095, 209.307118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 213.949997, "volume": 196, "typical_volume": 751.85, "trend": 212.318333, "fair_value": 234.480384, "relative_strength": -17.967543, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.766529, "energy": 7.037306, "activity_lines": [ 210.813333, 210.689636, 208.821095, 209.366989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }