{ "ticker": { "uuid": "104e11c5-2aaf-4880-9d61-50565a61426d", "symbol": "STIL", "name": "Stille AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.065, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.981, "architecture_energy": 16.092, "architecture_maturity": 63.234, "architecture_confidence": 84.21, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.08, "rotation_up": 21.67, "upward_expansion": 50.04, "deceleration": 82.09, "rotation_down": 38.39, "downward_expansion": 28.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 239.366667, 246.072727, 247.628571, 238.465591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 234.0, "trend_reference": 222.5, "distance_from_trend": 0.051685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 196.867308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.162594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.56, "excess_performance": 0.498506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100124, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.56, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.0558, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20527, "relative_activity": 0.885739, "balance": 3.0558, "dry_up": 0.666268, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090072, "annualized_volatility": 0.546864, "from_high_reference": -0.145985, "from_low_reference": 0.636364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 222.5, "fair_value_reference": 196.867308, "structural_low": 143.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.008259, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.037736, "worst_return": -0.137441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053381, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001027, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099526, "worst_return": -0.009302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.066351, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.109913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093023, "worst_return": -0.199288, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059908, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059896, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031161, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"relative_strength": 9.190817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.086725, "energy": 43.698534, "activity_lines": [ 254.4, 254.1, 243.428571, 229.697849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 270.5, "volume": 3095, "typical_volume": 23116.65, "trend": 216.75, "fair_value": 193.591667, "relative_strength": 16.236023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.621718, "energy": 46.3097, "activity_lines": [ 259.766667, 257.627273, 247.290476, 233.349462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 241.0, "volume": 5312, "typical_volume": 22441.25, "trend": 218.283333, "fair_value": 194.421795, "relative_strength": 4.898669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.296947, "energy": 29.908061, "activity_lines": [ 254.033333, 255.190909, 247.978571, 234.913978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 252.0, "volume": 21126, "typical_volume": 23086.4, "trend": 219.75, "fair_value": 195.338462, "relative_strength": 8.085221, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.586716, "energy": 29.807813, "activity_lines": [ 253.366667, 254.690909, 249.47381, 237.089247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 228.0, "volume": 14798, "typical_volume": 22863.65, "trend": 220.916667, "fair_value": 196.082051, "relative_strength": -3.148028, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.975081, "energy": 12.904649, "activity_lines": [ 244.8, 249.645455, 248.35, 237.621505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 234.0, "volume": 20527, "typical_volume": 23175.0, "trend": 222.5, "fair_value": 196.867308, "relative_strength": -2.162594, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.981276, "energy": 16.0923, "activity_lines": [ 239.366667, 246.072727, 247.628571, 238.465591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }