{ "ticker": { "uuid": "105cf662-9e5c-400b-8a91-e710cf23b29c", "symbol": "XMY", "name": "iShares MSCI Min Vol Global Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.583, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.972, "architecture_energy": 82.707, "architecture_maturity": 10.748, "architecture_confidence": 61.162, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.26, "rotation_up": 81.07, "upward_expansion": 93.32, "deceleration": 42.1, "rotation_down": 8.95, "downward_expansion": 17.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.352666, 34.064712, 33.788049, 33.711898 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.799999, "trend_reference": 33.644409, "distance_from_trend": 0.034347, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.609189, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136913, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.283914, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.031111, "excess_performance": -0.08931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034347, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.136913, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030717, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035182, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.448276, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1400, "relative_activity": 1.102362, "balance": 1.448276, "dry_up": 1.929134, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012201, "annualized_volatility": 0.07973, "from_high_reference": -0.004861, "from_low_reference": 0.078504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.644409, "fair_value_reference": 30.609189, "structural_low": 32.73, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.008383, "positive_rate": 0.651163, "directional_follow_through": 0.651163, "median_excess_return": -0.006442, "regime_survival": 0.790698, "best_return": 0.030306, "worst_return": -0.07305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007879, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.001841, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.077453, "worst_return": -0.055153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045322, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.008782, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.074026, "worst_return": -0.057554, "sufficient": true }, 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7.507096, "activity_lines": [ 33.403773, 33.398064, 33.442934, 33.461793 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 33.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1295.0, "trend": 33.414557, "fair_value": 30.29546, "relative_strength": -10.157683, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.376265, "energy": 27.31706, "activity_lines": [ 33.316638, 33.362568, 33.408304, 33.447575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1105.0, "trend": 33.444275, "fair_value": 30.348088, "relative_strength": -8.55848, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.968821, "energy": 14.140704, "activity_lines": [ 33.491281, 33.464891, 33.443912, 33.479539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.25, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 1140.0, "trend": 33.484998, "fair_value": 30.401616, "relative_strength": -7.430568, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.855766, "energy": 56.819813, "activity_lines": [ 33.754385, 33.615744, 33.513521, 33.531521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.919998, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 1255.0, "trend": 33.519005, "fair_value": 30.451445, "relative_strength": -7.857272, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.89533, "energy": 61.628326, "activity_lines": [ 33.857301, 33.688754, 33.550795, 33.559586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.639999, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 1260.0, "trend": 33.538075, "fair_value": 30.498079, "relative_strength": -8.508065, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.001807, "energy": 57.792522, "activity_lines": [ 33.843333, 33.696483, 33.563975, 33.567392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.57, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 1345.0, "trend": 33.592075, "fair_value": 30.553354, "relative_strength": -5.244556, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.313063, "energy": 78.076728, "activity_lines": [ 34.105333, 33.868719, 33.66725, 33.633968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.799999, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 1270.0, "trend": 33.644409, "fair_value": 30.609189, "relative_strength": -7.283914, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.972299, "energy": 82.706762, "activity_lines": [ 34.352666, 34.064712, 33.788049, 33.711898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }