{ "ticker": { "uuid": "106064a6-328c-4eaf-8a97-5adda9e80df4", "symbol": "DBE", "name": "INVESCO DB MULTI-SECTOR COMM TR ENERGY FD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.119, "architecture_energy": 37.206, "architecture_maturity": 19.62, "architecture_confidence": 58.825, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.85, "rotation_up": 64.72, "upward_expansion": 68.15, "deceleration": 62.14, "rotation_down": 9.82, "downward_expansion": 11.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.432, 29.313436, 29.594814, 29.014604 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.43, "trend_reference": 27.217167, "distance_from_trend": 0.081303, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.94249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475744, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.182092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.517793, "excess_performance": 0.392168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081303, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475744, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.131821, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.517793, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.3574, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 241916, "relative_activity": 0.666485, "balance": 0.3574, "dry_up": 0.548145, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083334, "annualized_volatility": 0.51141, "from_high_reference": -0.143481, "from_low_reference": 0.731476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.217167, "fair_value_reference": 19.94249, "structural_low": 18.8401, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.00586, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.013308, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.494505, "worst_return": -0.158564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001404, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029683, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.747776, "worst_return": -0.071584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004927, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.038322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315705, "worst_return": -0.089234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 19.722823, "relative_strength": 23.746044, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.463423, "energy": 20.098272, "activity_lines": [ 27.774867, 28.301782, 29.215362, 28.122512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.21, "volume": 126019, "typical_volume": 396976.1, "trend": 26.361367, "fair_value": 19.805623, "relative_strength": 31.220772, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.533806, "energy": 26.699324, "activity_lines": [ 29.407333, 28.846636, 29.485957, 28.531649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.24, "volume": 276550, "typical_volume": 379164.0, "trend": 26.822833, "fair_value": 19.880417, "relative_strength": 25.044154, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.519134, "energy": 37.035974, "activity_lines": [ 30.400667, 29.236764, 29.632957, 28.8464 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.43, "volume": 241916, "typical_volume": 362972.65, "trend": 27.217167, "fair_value": 19.94249, "relative_strength": 13.182092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.118759, "energy": 37.206413, "activity_lines": [ 30.432, 29.313436, 29.594814, 29.014604 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }