{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10606d3b-1c49-4799-b27d-bb27868debb3", "symbol": "IJUN", "name": "INNOVATOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED POWER BUFFER ETF - JUNE", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.959, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.139, "architecture_energy": 62.756, "architecture_maturity": 38.355, "architecture_confidence": 69.187, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.02, "rotation_up": 63.87, "upward_expansion": 82.85, "deceleration": 55.66, "rotation_down": 20.81, "downward_expansion": 9.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.550413, 31.384995, 31.121717, 30.806706 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.0189, "trend_reference": 30.45506, "distance_from_trend": 0.051349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.562025, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161703, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.808038, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064027, "excess_performance": -0.061598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026398, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028993, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013165, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064027, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.640781, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36372, "relative_activity": 0.253172, "balance": 0.640781, "dry_up": 0.233657, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014292, "annualized_volatility": 0.085115, "from_high_reference": -0.001282, "from_low_reference": 0.152588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.45506, "fair_value_reference": 27.562025, "structural_low": 28.695, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01229, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.007243, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.02394, "worst_return": -0.019168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.037662, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011022, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.064343, "worst_return": 0.010982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.076031, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018172, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.076031, "worst_return": 0.076031, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-2.012683, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.181232, "energy": 51.222833, "activity_lines": [ 31.304967, 31.228336, 30.989323, 30.70066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.0189, "volume": 36372, "typical_volume": 143665.45, "trend": 30.45506, "fair_value": 27.562025, "relative_strength": -3.808038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.139384, "energy": 62.755633, "activity_lines": [ 31.550413, 31.384995, 31.121717, 30.806706 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }