{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10644f14-904d-4751-896b-d996723e07aa", "symbol": "CXT", "name": "Crane NXT Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 92.034, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.347, "architecture_energy": 42.393, "architecture_maturity": 21.55, "architecture_confidence": 60.832, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.39, "rotation_up": 68.44, "upward_expansion": 56.87, "deceleration": 29.41, "rotation_down": 20.56, "downward_expansion": 12.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.426667, 51.027636, 47.519309, 46.576658 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 53.33, "trend_reference": 46.601628, "distance_from_trend": 0.144381, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.276671, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017442, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.01597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040556, "excess_performance": -0.16618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144381, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029781, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price 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"A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022355, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003769, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.049184, "worst_return": -0.120878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024594, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.034731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121935, "worst_return": -0.085123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049171, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.088761, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170344, "worst_return": -0.142235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.86, "volume": 2557582, "typical_volume": 4223437.2, "trend": 46.322231, "fair_value": 54.324687, "relative_strength": -5.746546, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.385417, "energy": 67.985594, "activity_lines": [ 51.700667, 48.864188, 45.984801, 45.77139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.95, "volume": 2988602, "typical_volume": 4198260.3, "trend": 46.476118, "fair_value": 54.307417, "relative_strength": -7.86016, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.690923, "energy": 54.239582, "activity_lines": [ 51.944, 49.920727, 46.709853, 46.134472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.33, "volume": 3482417, "typical_volume": 4199043.2, "trend": 46.601628, "fair_value": 54.276671, "relative_strength": -8.01597, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.346974, "energy": 42.393038, "activity_lines": [ 52.426667, 51.027636, 47.519309, 46.576658 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }