{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1066a329-270c-4ff9-bf33-d6b27354d99c", "symbol": "605255", "name": "Ningbo TIP Rubber Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.5, "architecture_energy": 56.652, "architecture_maturity": 73.25, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.74, "rotation_up": 26.26, "upward_expansion": 9.46, "deceleration": 58.96, "rotation_down": 57.2, "downward_expansion": 85.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.523335, 71.561638, 80.25181, 89.040973 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 70.800003, "trend_reference": 105.823174, "distance_from_trend": -0.330959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.491308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.591322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.104032, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.418433, "excess_performance": -0.375229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.330959, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163827, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.591322, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.043737, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.31104, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.402443, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.418433, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.214549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4766311, "relative_activity": 0.687058, "balance": 0.214549, "dry_up": 0.943079, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15895, "annualized_volatility": 0.588441, "from_high_reference": -0.675259, "from_low_reference": 1.882742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.823174, "fair_value_reference": 44.491308, "structural_low": 63.380001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.027378, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.024135, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.197279, "worst_return": -0.240165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.017784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010014, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.366374, "worst_return": -0.313209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.078297, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.48962, "worst_return": -0.237492, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.827759, "energy": 64.967044, "activity_lines": [ 72.736668, 76.816585, 86.700598, 97.732512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.730003, "volume": 6727263, "typical_volume": 7529400.6, "trend": 114.504841, "fair_value": 43.80935, "relative_strength": -28.784477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.420973, "energy": 63.935141, "activity_lines": [ 71.162002, 74.598772, 84.382431, 94.685189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.949997, "volume": 7146967, "typical_volume": 7382274.8, "trend": 110.730508, "fair_value": 44.137497, "relative_strength": -32.482834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.460702, "energy": 63.534551, "activity_lines": [ 69.402667, 72.463475, 82.020596, 91.617134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.800003, "volume": 4766311, "typical_volume": 6937279.45, "trend": 105.823174, "fair_value": 44.491308, "relative_strength": -31.104032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.499523, "energy": 56.652419, "activity_lines": [ 69.523335, 71.561638, 80.25181, 89.040973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }