{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1069029e-a5d5-4d7b-8475-8b0b9ac9cc7c", "symbol": "TIRUPATIFL", "name": "Tirupati Forge Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.683, "architecture_energy": 71.718, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.67, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.76, "rotation_up": 79.01, "upward_expansion": 89.66, "deceleration": 50.79, "rotation_down": 9.69, "downward_expansion": 13.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.041333, 66.021818, 57.465762, 52.946925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 72.07, "trend_reference": 47.168667, "distance_from_trend": 0.527921, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.553974, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.147883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 68.191829, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.104848, "excess_performance": 1.148557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.527921, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.147883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.673951, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.681918, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.528704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.104848, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.519899, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1275072, "relative_activity": 0.673112, "balance": 3.519899, "dry_up": 1.833035, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108612, "annualized_volatility": 0.619061, "from_high_reference": -0.141001, "from_low_reference": 1.393557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.168667, "fair_value_reference": 33.553974, "structural_low": 33.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.010499, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.018296, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 1.506666, "worst_return": -0.357895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.351206, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.251462, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 2.14164, "worst_return": -0.419192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.157578, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.103039, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.954777, "worst_return": -0.325085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.798978, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.775631, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.913761, "worst_return": -0.432056, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.473386, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192885, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107309, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.423103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085775, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055377, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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"trend": 44.848667, "fair_value": 32.764103, "relative_strength": 83.112694, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.514663, "energy": 94.402494, "activity_lines": [ 68.468666, 60.642909, 53.46719, 49.640581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.0, "volume": 1297072, "typical_volume": 2125890.35, "trend": 45.973, "fair_value": 33.14968, "relative_strength": 67.267873, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.879918, "energy": 86.3521, "activity_lines": [ 70.131333, 63.414909, 55.432095, 51.263247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.07, "volume": 1275072, "typical_volume": 1894295.25, "trend": 47.168667, "fair_value": 33.553974, "relative_strength": 68.191829, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.682815, "energy": 71.718282, "activity_lines": [ 71.041333, 66.021818, 57.465762, 52.946925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }