{ "ticker": { "uuid": "106f7e91-dc40-4c16-9cc3-75e43f03ce23", "symbol": "2642", "name": "Taiwan Pelican Express Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.606, "architecture_energy": 39.871, "architecture_maturity": 65.863, "architecture_confidence": 89.254, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.69, "rotation_up": 21.04, "upward_expansion": 4.56, "deceleration": 51.43, "rotation_down": 58.39, "downward_expansion": 82.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.23, 20.448181, 20.663917, 21.163091 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 20.15, "trend_reference": 22.026857, "distance_from_trend": -0.085208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.68619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.343353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.544515, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.172639, "excess_performance": -0.614011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076838, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.343353, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036351, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.425445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053607, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.563702, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175792, "relative_activity": 0.352036, "balance": 2.563702, "dry_up": 0.487889, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055358, "annualized_volatility": 0.152058, "from_high_reference": -0.392863, "from_low_reference": 0.026998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.026857, "fair_value_reference": 30.68619, "structural_low": 19.620286, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.012346, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.037989, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.222992, "worst_return": -0.245857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.059346, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.106837, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.097953, "worst_return": -0.242962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.062761, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.202146, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.019006, "worst_return": -0.317508, "sufficient": true }, { 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41.344932, "activity_lines": [ 20.68, 20.783183, 21.07411, 21.725822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.549999, "volume": 229427, "typical_volume": 501507.7, "trend": 22.548098, "fair_value": 31.04535, "relative_strength": -41.221033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.532298, "energy": 37.093363, "activity_lines": [ 20.596666, 20.756472, 20.974263, 21.586211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.1, "volume": 359001, "typical_volume": 506746.95, "trend": 22.367235, "fair_value": 30.925096, "relative_strength": -40.920945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.440889, "energy": 42.78051, "activity_lines": [ 20.396666, 20.639026, 20.848281, 21.42827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.299999, "volume": 210306, "typical_volume": 503620.25, "trend": 22.193039, "fair_value": 30.80402, "relative_strength": -40.933129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.146119, "energy": 40.403622, "activity_lines": [ 20.306666, 20.554545, 20.756726, 21.294899 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.15, "volume": 175792, "typical_volume": 499358.1, "trend": 22.026857, "fair_value": 30.68619, "relative_strength": -42.544515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.606222, "energy": 39.871427, "activity_lines": [ 20.23, 20.448181, 20.663917, 21.163091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }