{ "ticker": { "uuid": "10703561-bd58-46ef-bd4d-67a4c40a675e", "symbol": "IDNT", "name": "Identi Healthcare Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.265, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.963, "architecture_energy": 16.922, "architecture_maturity": 22.646, "architecture_confidence": 40.232, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.94, "rotation_up": 55.8, "upward_expansion": 33.11, "deceleration": 37.36, "rotation_down": 18.06, "downward_expansion": 24.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.837933, 1.779309, 1.797995, 1.81837 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.881, "trend_reference": 1.829033, "distance_from_trend": 0.028412, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.580167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.270977, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.0367, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065119, "excess_performance": 0.036219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028412, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010121, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.270977, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05804, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120367, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228661, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065119, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.945449, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 376731, "relative_activity": 5.342134, "balance": 1.945449, "dry_up": 1.728638, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080563, "annualized_volatility": 0.380886, "from_high_reference": -0.303333, "from_low_reference": 0.226206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.829033, "fair_value_reference": 2.580167, "structural_low": 1.571, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.076108, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.054555, "worst_return": -0.15011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.069285, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048848, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.188012, "worst_return": -0.224062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.128943, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.384031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130635, "worst_return": -0.388521, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.016906, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.479034, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016906, "worst_return": 0.016906, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.257746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.384118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.317489, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.457177, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25469, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.322838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055108, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.101763, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.135843, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00057, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.15, "volume": 27724, "typical_volume": 13329.4, "trend": 3.6691, "fair_value": 4.872885, "relative_strength": 3.823274, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"volume": 91500, "typical_volume": 53224.8, "trend": 1.822867, "fair_value": 2.637212, "relative_strength": -21.138058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.925436, "energy": 61.13273, "activity_lines": [ 1.669, 1.710455, 1.79501, 1.813839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.881, "volume": 14991, "typical_volume": 51909.15, "trend": 1.828133, "fair_value": 2.62316, "relative_strength": -15.76234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.5838, "energy": 21.446065, "activity_lines": [ 1.739867, 1.733891, 1.799157, 1.817589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.877, "volume": 2419, "typical_volume": 51118.25, "trend": 1.837167, "fair_value": 2.609083, "relative_strength": -16.7241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.356177, "energy": 16.819543, "activity_lines": [ 1.8018, 1.755836, 1.802457, 1.820742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.754, "volume": 93478, "typical_volume": 52506.55, "trend": 1.8346, "fair_value": 2.594218, "relative_strength": -18.828138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.915069, "energy": 22.909051, "activity_lines": [ 1.8032, 1.754127, 1.793833, 1.815376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.881, "volume": 376731, "typical_volume": 70520.7, "trend": 1.829033, "fair_value": 2.580167, "relative_strength": -12.0367, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.962942, "energy": 16.921838, "activity_lines": [ 1.837933, 1.779309, 1.797995, 1.81837 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }