{ "ticker": { "uuid": "108036ef-5bef-4395-bbc3-e5091337dbce", "symbol": "000901", "name": "Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.552, "architecture_energy": 85.099, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.974, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 10.31, "upward_expansion": 21.0, "deceleration": 37.54, "rotation_down": 75.38, "downward_expansion": 94.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.458667, 15.617578, 17.710173, 19.334662 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.06, "trend_reference": 21.810071, "distance_from_trend": -0.309493, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.642385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.737339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.466336, "excess_performance": -0.473736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.309493, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103913, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.787624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.466336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468513, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81966477, "relative_activity": 0.78005, "balance": 0.468513, "dry_up": 1.031965, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126639, "annualized_volatility": 0.523491, "from_high_reference": -0.574576, "from_low_reference": 0.195238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.810071, "fair_value_reference": 13.642385, "structural_low": 12.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.031957, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.011527, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.160539, "worst_return": -0.227993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.081243, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.077207, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.233365, "worst_return": -0.150609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096198, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.155949, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.795564, "worst_return": -0.166833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027482, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.343928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.406922, "active": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.611687, "energy": 80.747858, "activity_lines": [ 18.152452, 19.041741, 20.570224, 21.957674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.93, "volume": 158863727, "typical_volume": 112199507.0, "trend": 23.318404, "fair_value": 13.551488, "relative_strength": -21.046409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.778074, "energy": 60.15847, "activity_lines": [ 18.038569, 18.629288, 20.195642, 21.602938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.38, "volume": 171935278, "typical_volume": 112780918.1, "trend": 22.988737, "fair_value": 13.568667, "relative_strength": -35.181831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.354247, "energy": 72.222177, "activity_lines": [ 16.4693, 17.499677, 19.42587, 20.96175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.47, "volume": 105408209, "typical_volume": 108353229.15, "trend": 22.624071, "fair_value": 13.587514, "relative_strength": -34.896577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.597711, "energy": 80.75114, "activity_lines": [ 15.256667, 16.591264, 18.729765, 20.347638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.12, "volume": 74439554, "typical_volume": 105780492.0, "trend": 22.257071, "fair_value": 13.610526, "relative_strength": -30.677661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.893017, "energy": 86.655006, "activity_lines": [ 14.584667, 15.956803, 18.152802, 19.798989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.06, "volume": 81966477, "typical_volume": 105078532.8, "trend": 21.810071, "fair_value": 13.642385, "relative_strength": -29.737339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.551512, "energy": 85.098849, "activity_lines": [ 14.458667, 15.617578, 17.710173, 19.334662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }